ATL: EARL - Models

[BobHarlem]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

[sma10]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

I feel confident in that the GFS/HWRF scenario is pretty clear cut if it verifies. Quickly organizing and strengthening, moves briskly to the NW, N then NE.

The others leave a lot more uncertainty. UK sends this far to the SW, and while weak, it doesn't tell any story past 6 days. Will it just fade away to nothing? The CMC/Euro are forecasting a several day stall north of the GA. The assumption is that after the stall it will merely go out to sea, but now we are in the 7-10 day period, where unknowns are greater

[Kingarabian]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

I feel confident in that the GFS/HWRF scenario is pretty clear cut if it verifies. Quickly organizing and strengthening, moves briskly to the NW, N then NE.

The others leave a lot more uncertainty. UK sends this far to the SW, and while weak, it doesn't tell any story past 6 days. Will it just fade away to nothing? The CMC/Euro are forecasting a several day stall north of the GA. The assumption is that after the stall it will merely go out to sea, but now we are in the 7-10 day period, where unknowns are greater

Exactly. The more model runs that show this stall, the more concerning it gets.

Looks like Gonzo will be doing missions for a little longer...

[Nimbus]

Just catching up on the 12Z model runs and saw the stall north of the Greater Antilles.
Never gets north of 25N for 10 days?
The upper air pattern features a rather kinked Jet stream, and a major hurricane to some extent creates its own environment.
So maybe the model forecast confidence level is rather low, but NHC would need to explain.

[Yellow Evan]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

I feel confident in that the GFS/HWRF scenario is pretty clear cut if it verifies. Quickly organizing and strengthening, moves briskly to the NW, N then NE.

The others leave a lot more uncertainty. UK sends this far to the SW, and while weak, it doesn't tell any story past 6 days. Will it just fade away to nothing? The CMC/Euro are forecasting a several day stall north of the GA. The assumption is that after the stall it will merely go out to sea, but now we are in the 7-10 day period, where unknowns are greater

Exactly. The more model runs that show this stall, the more concerning it gets.

Looks like Gonzo will be doing missions for a little longer...

Unless a strong ridge builds directly north of the system and persists, a trough should eventually pick it up and pick it out to sea, which is what usually happens in similar synoptic situations.

[sma10]

Unless a strong ridge builds directly north of the system and persists, a trough should eventually pick it up and pick it out to sea, which is what usually happens in similar synoptic situations.

Yes, usually

[Meteorcane]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

I feel confident in that the GFS/HWRF scenario is pretty clear cut if it verifies. Quickly organizing and strengthening, moves briskly to the NW, N then NE.

The others leave a lot more uncertainty. UK sends this far to the SW, and while weak, it doesn't tell any story past 6 days. Will it just fade away to nothing? The CMC/Euro are forecasting a several day stall north of the GA. The assumption is that after the stall it will merely go out to sea, but now we are in the 7-10 day period, where unknowns are greater

Yep this is right, the easiest, most clean cut solution is stronger, further north system which confidently recurves east of even Bermuda. A weaker, and/or slower system likely tracks further and will likely not get picked up by first trough and although it won't make any westward progress given the ridge over the FL Peninsula it won't be far enough north to be picked up by the initial trough (which will be too low amplitude) and will just meander in the SW Atlantic. Now even with this scenario it probably drifts far enough north to eventually be picked up by a later shortwave, but obviously the confidence in the overall pattern decreases when you go further in the future so weird things can happen. In fact very late in the period there is some signal that ridging will build in to the region towards the end of next week which could cause complications if the system is still around (this is shown in some of the "wacky" tracks of the slowest/furthest south EPS members).

[AutoPenalti]

You will need an extremely and I mean EXTREMELY strong ridge to push this west if it meanders near the Bahamas.

[sma10]

Theme this afternoon seems like a weaker/slower 91L. (Except for GFS and the HWRF which go a bit more crazy). If the UK verifies it enters into that area of the Bahamas known for RI, which is not good. Although the Euro and Canadian and Icon still showing a slow Recurve so I think the UK is very unlikely. The GFS is again by itself going super fast outta here. 12z euro is not good for Bermuda, though.

I feel confident in that the GFS/HWRF scenario is pretty clear cut if it verifies. Quickly organizing and strengthening, moves briskly to the NW, N then NE.

The others leave a lot more uncertainty. UK sends this far to the SW, and while weak, it doesn't tell any story past 6 days. Will it just fade away to nothing? The CMC/Euro are forecasting a several day stall north of the GA. The assumption is that after the stall it will merely go out to sea, but now we are in the 7-10 day period, where unknowns are greater

Yep this is right, the easiest, most clean cut solution is stronger, further north system which confidently recurves east of even Bermuda. A weaker, and/or slower system likely tracks further and will likely not get picked up by first trough and although it won't make any westward progress given the ridge over the FL Peninsula it won't be far enough north to be picked up by the initial trough (which will be too low amplitude) and will just meander in the SW Atlantic. Now even with this scenario it probably drifts far enough north to eventually be picked up by a later shortwave, but obviously the confidence in the overall pattern decreases when you go further in the future so weird things can happen. In fact very late in the period there is some signal that ridging will build in to the region towards the end of next week which could cause complications if the system is still around (this is shown in some of the "wacky" tracks of the slowest/furthest south EPS members).

Yes, experience shows that the craziest tracks tend not to verify, but the EPS does have enough members doing bizarre looping moves to at least mention that a stall is potentially on the table.

And in a season that has so far been a bit weird, maybe we should expert weird happenings

[MHC Tracking]

Significant downtrends on both the GEFS and EPS with 91L. Many members now dissipate it entirely, w/o a trough interaction. Might just be too much dry air to allow for development.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is further south compared to the past runs through hour 72.

[ConvergenceZone]

If we are lucky, this might be the year of the Fish Storms..............

[aspen]

18z GFS is further south compared to the past runs through hour 72.

The recurve has been shifted even further east. Pretty much as soon as it starts intensifying, it starts getting dragged to the NE. It’s remarkable how much the track has shifted east in the last few days — originally near Bermuda (possibly between it and the CONUS), now a few hundred miles east of the island. Too far east and it won’t be able to become an impressive fish storm because it might not hit that pocket of 29.5-30C SSTs around 62-65W.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS has this parked under a strong ridge near 21 N at 78 hours according to the 1020 isobar.
Still below 28 N at 165 hours at which point its probably random luck that a trough would dig.
Can't remember the last time we had a hurricane strengthening on the southwest side of a ridge without moving west?

[tolakram]

Here's the 12Z UKMET starting at 48 hours.



The 18Z only goes to 60 hours so here's the last frame.

[aspen]

18z HWRF finally realizes 91L isn’t super organized and delays development to Saturday/Sunday, agreeing with a few other models. It still gets this to MH intensity, but upwelling becomes an issue only 4-5 days from now. HMON only peaks as a strong TS or weak C1 and tries to recurve this much earlier and further east than most other models.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the 12Z UKMET starting at 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/3StTHGY.gif

The 18Z only goes to 60 hours so here's the last frame.

https://i.imgur.com/PDis16j.png

00z runs from the CMC/Euro will be interesting. I doubt the GFS will shift drastically so soon.

[sma10]

Here's the 12Z UKMET starting at 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/3StTHGY.gif

The 18Z only goes to 60 hours so here's the last frame.

https://i.imgur.com/PDis16j.png

00z runs from the CMC/Euro will be interesting. I doubt the GFS will shift drastically so soon.

18z Euro (only goes out 90 hrs) also with a shift SW. Final position just barely N of PR, moving west at a snails pace

[NDG]

My money is on the Euro, it eventually does the best when there's dry air around, it will be weak for at least the next 7 days.
GFS and hurricane models are too aggressive considering how much dry air is around it.

[LarryWx]

Here's the 12Z UKMET starting at 48 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/3StTHGY.gif

The 18Z only goes to 60 hours so here's the last frame.

https://i.imgur.com/PDis16j.png

Thanks for posting these. So, your animation of the 12Z run shows it continued moving WNW from 144 to 168 along the N Cuba coast all of the way to 78W albeit as only a weak low. Also, the 18Z at hour 60 is over the Leewards, which is a good 100 miles SW of the 12Z run at 66.