ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#261 Postby skillz305 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:10 am

robbielyn wrote:
skillz305 wrote:Vero Beach, FL here. Work (boat production) hasn’t said a peep about this storm. Waiting to see if we have to work Wednesday or Thursday (usually off Fridays since we work 10 hour days). So much confusion at work as of now. But it’s coming, right? Even if a moderate TS.


They may send u hm early but if it’s not a hurricane you probably will still hv to come in depending on how bad it is. if u lose electricity then i’m sure ur going to be sent home


My guess is, they are waiting on an official tropical storm watch or warning.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#262 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:16 am

God forbid, but can Nicole become a hurricane? With the gulf stream ahead of it? I sure do hate to see yall in Florida and other Ian affected areas have to go through what looks like a prolonged event. Good morning btw...
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#263 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:18 am

GCANE wrote:Latest GFS shows an extreme, off-the-scale, large area of vorticity on approach to the east FL coast.
Area north of the CoC maybe particularly vulnerable to tornadoes due to frictional effects of the land (boundary layer) to the north quad's winds.


Image

Lacking big convection, but COC seems to be tightening up??
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#264 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:20 am

Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:Latest GFS shows an extreme, off-the-scale, large area of vorticity on approach to the east FL coast.
Area north of the CoC maybe particularly vulnerable to tornadoes due to frictional effects of the land (boundary layer) to the north quad's winds.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zftpyGpD/goes16-vis-swir-17-L-202211071257.gif [/url]

Lacking big convection, but COC seems to be tightening up??


Recon will tell us if is tightening or not.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#265 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:25 am

Well, Nicole certainly gets an F for presentation at this current time. But that's par for the course in a subtropical mess.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#266 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:30 am

toad strangler wrote:Well, Nicole certainly gets an F for presentation at this current time. But that's par for the course in a subtropical mess.

From NWS Melbourne...8AM Update | Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed east of the Bahamas. Don't let "subtropical" fool you, the storm has the potential to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the east coast of Florida later this week.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#267 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:35 am

cycloneye wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
GCANE wrote:Latest GFS shows an extreme, off-the-scale, large area of vorticity on approach to the east FL coast.
Area north of the CoC maybe particularly vulnerable to tornadoes due to frictional effects of the land (boundary layer) to the north quad's winds.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/zftpyGpD/goes16-vis-swir-17-L-202211071257.gif [/url]

Lacking big convection, but COC seems to be tightening up??


Recon will tell us if is tightening or not.


The satellite presentation looks like the 06z HWRF.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#268 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:36 am

Looks like the turn more towards the west has begun

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#269 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:38 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#270 Postby Michele B » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:43 am

underthwx wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Well, Nicole certainly gets an F for presentation at this current time. But that's par for the course in a subtropical mess.

From NWS Melbourne...8AM Update | Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed east of the Bahamas. Don't let "subtropical" fool you, the storm has the potential to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the east coast of Florida later this week.


Just watched TWC prognosis on this, and they put it at around 70 mph just before landfall.

Sorry, wasn't paying attention at where they said, cause the cone of uncertainty covers just about the whole state!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#271 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:48 am



The framework is there. It's a pretty large circulation. But there ain't any meat on the bones. Yet. Just a spine down the middle.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#272 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:49 am

Mention of the cone reminds me that since it's only based on the center and not where actual impacts are going to be it's going to be worse than useless with this torm. With a sprawled-out, large hybrid storm like this and the gradient-driven winds along the SE US coast, impacts are going to be felt well outside the "cone"; barring a north turn off the FL east coast the entire state is likely going to get effects from Nicole.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#273 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:51 am

Mark Sudduth's video update on nicole
[youtube]https://youtu.be/6QUHRuCnbcg[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#274 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:54 am

South shift on the 12z early ensemble members.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby ObsessedMiami » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:54 am

This is a weird storm. Are we going to get TS watches all up the coast later?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:55 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:59 am

Michele B wrote:
underthwx wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Well, Nicole certainly gets an F for presentation at this current time. But that's par for the course in a subtropical mess.

From NWS Melbourne...8AM Update | Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed east of the Bahamas. Don't let "subtropical" fool you, the storm has the potential to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the east coast of Florida later this week.


Just watched TWC prognosis on this, and they put it at around 70 mph just before landfall.

Sorry, wasn't paying attention at where they said, cause the cone of uncertainty covers just about the whole state!

Yes, Nicole is a large system for sure, impacts will vary, and be widespread, unfortunately....
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby Gums » Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:00 am

Salute!

Agree with the comment concerning "sub-tropical" storm. We had a "sub-tropical" storm in the gulf back in '93 and it was as bad as a Cat 1 hurricane - the so called "storm of the century", and good reading for we storm nerds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

One thing stood out to me besides the very strong winds we had in the Panhandle, and it was the storm surge in "big bend" country. And I quote:

"A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida Panhandle to north of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard-hit.[4]

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m),[25] higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[27] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew combined.[5] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[28] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.[4]

Go see Ozello Florida for a true "end of the road" place ( try Google Maps road view and drive) and I stopped by a bar/grill/marina there later that year. The owner said there was no official warning as they get with hurricanes. Folks were sipping a brew, eating , having a good time when the water started up and they thankfully had a second floor to retreat.

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:00 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:This is a weird storm. Are we going to get TS watches all up the coast later?

You might get more than a TS watch in dade with the south trend.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Subtropical Storm - Discussion

#280 Postby Michele B » Mon Nov 07, 2022 10:03 am

underthwx wrote:
Michele B wrote:
underthwx wrote:From NWS Melbourne...8AM Update | Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed east of the Bahamas. Don't let "subtropical" fool you, the storm has the potential to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the east coast of Florida later this week.


Just watched TWC prognosis on this, and they put it at around 70 mph just before landfall.

Sorry, wasn't paying attention at where they said, cause the cone of uncertainty covers just about the whole state!

Yes, Nicole is a large system for sure, impacts will vary, and be widespread, unfortunately....


Yes, it looks like all up the FL peninsula into GA, and everything east of the Appalachians.

Of course, if the majority of the convection stays well east of the center - which it is now - we shouldn't be too bad off.
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