EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[ChrisH-UK]

No signs of a eye forming yet, Agatha is having a lot of convection development

Agatha 1 Hour Loop GOES-16 Meso Sector, Red band with Clean IR https://col.st/bigRq

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yes, this could collapse like Delta did. But, what if it doesn't?

[kevin]

What a storm to kick-off the NATL/EPAC season. Hopefully it makes landfall in a sparsely populated area, because it's looking like this could become a mean one.

[skyline385]

Yes, this could collapse like Delta did. But, what if it doesn't?

Unfortunately I think the shear will get to the eye soon

[ElectricStorm]

Yes, this could collapse like Delta did. But, what if it doesn't?

Unfortunately I think the shear will get to the eye soon

I mean... That would be a good thing considering it's heading right for Mexico...

[skyline385]

I doubt a pinhole eye will be able to handle 10 kts+ shear

[skyline385]

Yes, this could collapse like Delta did. But, what if it doesn't?

Unfortunately I think the shear will get to the eye soon

I mean... That would be a good thing considering it's heading right for Mexico...

It will stop the intensification but if it undergoes an EWRC then it will mean more wind radii and flooding for Mexico

[aspen]

Next recon update should be the first center fix and NE quad winds.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Very tight core as expected. Let's see if the pinhole eye can clear out.

ADT will struggle with the center fix so it may show incorrect estimates.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

[Jelmergraaff]

Seems to me like the eye is clearing out, may be RI. I am actually wondering why the intensity guidance from TropicalTidbits is showing an inital windspeed of 90 knots. Is this wrong or does it know something more than we do? (Does anyone know how to upload a image from your file directory?)

And as this is my first post, I'll very quickly introduce myself. I'm 19 years old and from The Netherlands. I work as a meteorologist at one of the main weather sites here, and I've been interested in hurricanes for years already.

[skyline385]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

95 kts were the highest predicted winds in NHC's latest discussion, still got a day left to landfall

[KirbyDude25]

Seems to me like the eye is clearing out, may be RI. I am actually wondering why the intensity guidance from TropicalTidbits is showing an inital windspeed of 90 knots. Is this wrong or does it know something more than we do? (Does anyone know how to upload a image from your file directory?)

And as this is my first post, I'll very quickly introduce myself. I'm 19 years old and from The Netherlands. I work as a meteorologist at one of the main weather sites here, and I've been interested in hurricanes for years already.

Hi, welcome to Storm2K! Tropical Tidbits pulls from ATCF, which assessed Agatha as having an intensity of 90 knots in its 18Z update.

[Jelmergraaff]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

Seems reasonable regarding the windspeed. Aircraft had one flagged 95 kt, but also two non-flagged 90 kt measurements. Pressure could also be about 960 mb, as the aircraft of course hasn't reached the center yet (min. flight level wind was still above 64 kt).

[cycloneye]

There were some flagged readings at the last set.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

Seems reasonable regarding the windspeed. Aircraft had one flagged 95 kt, but also two non-flagged 90 kt measurements. Pressure could also be about 960 mb, as the aircraft of course hasn't reached the center yet (min. flight level wind was still above 64 kt).

Lowest extrapolated was 966 but with winds well above hurricane force. Hence, it's a rough guess on the pressure. The flight level winds translate to 96 kt at the surface as well.

[skyline385]

That's a weird turn from recon, they entered at about 30 degrees and look to be going out at 60 degrees from N. Wonder if they noticed or missed something...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

Yeah, they missed the center by quite a bit. 960mb would indicate that the storm is dropping mb quite fast with such a low windspeed corresponding to that. Especially with such a tight core.
I personally would go 958mb because lowest extrap was 965.5mb at winspeeds of at least 83knots. Extrap always runs a bit low hence why i went with 958 instead of 955-956mb.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the Recon data, I would put it at 95 kt and 960 mb.

Yeah, they missed the center by quite a bit. 960mb would indicate that the storm is dropping mb quite fast with such a low windspeed corresponding to that. Especially with such a tight core.

The RMW is so small it would be hard to get into it.