ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Europa non è lontana]

AL, 98, 2022110706, , BEST, 0, 252N, 682W, 40, 1004, SS, 34, NEQ, 240, 240, 0, 0, 1009, 270, 200, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039,

[Landy]

Looks like no PTC, we will be getting Nicole at 09z.

From FNMOC:

[AJC3]

Looks like no PTC, we will be getting Nicole at 09z.

From FNMOC:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/857017650042503178/1039084818220204032/image.png

Yep, given the ASCAT data, initializing it as a STS looks like the right call here

[cycloneye]

Has taken the left turn.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1589538597639581696

[hiflyer]

In my personal opinion, the G-IV mission should be moved up to tomorrow. While the track forecast has fairly decent confidence, we need to know how conducive the environment is for strengthening and if the front is playing any role.

Given the 0z GFS left (south) slide down the coast I agree…NOAA49 should have been up before now so that models have time to digest the data. Ian was a very good example of the need of that data.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/1589553426119393281

[cane5]

https://i.imgur.com/4DdYvao.png

While there seems to be confidence that intensification is likely as it reaches the bahamas there seems to be less confidence in where Nicole makes landfall. It would be a good time at some point today to check the ICON model since it’s my opinion it is very accurate on where Nicole will make landfall.

[Blown Away]

Looks more NW

[Nimbus]

Is there a southern warm core lobe working its way down to the surface? If so Nicole might maintain an elongated circulation all the way to landfall. That would limit the intensity forecast but mean TS winds over a larger area.

[cycloneye]

First recon mission from NOAA is now underway and it was added as it was not on Sundays TCPOD.

[aspen]

I can recall at least 3 or 4 invests this year that looked better than Nicole and were never classified. Its first recon pass looks classifiable I guess, but it may or may not support TS intensity (40 kt FL, 30 kt SFMR).

[NDG]

Don't look for Nicole's satellite presentation of a subtropical system to change much during the day today as persistently shown by the models. Is not supposed to start becoming better organized until at least tomorrow morning.

[GCANE]

Recon Extrp Press measured 1001.8mb

[cane5]

A day ago I posted that Andrew was crushed by a relentless high and as it was coming into Miami it picked up strength in the very hot waters and dipped down to Homestead 20 miles to its south. Andrew was a tight dry storm so there is a difference in strength but the direction from where it’s coming and where it could go has me curious. A strong trough expected later will not pull it north in time.

[NDG]

The biggest impacts whether Nicole becomes a hurricane or not will be north of the center of Nicole, widespread 20'+ foot waves will be a big problem for many coastal communities especially in Volusia County.

[Michele B]

https://i.imgur.com/4DdYvao.png

While there seems to be confidence that intensification is likely as it reaches the bahamas there seems to be less confidence in where Nicole makes landfall. It would be a good time at some point today to check the ICON model since it’s my opinion it is very accurate on where Nicole will make landfall.

Yes, please someone explain where to find the ICON model as I think I’m trusting it more than most at this point. Not to say I won’t look at others, but I’m just doing my own little “science experiment” with it, if you will.

[GCANE]

Nicole is located between the northern edge of the cutoff UL Low and the bottom of the UL trough.
This places Nicole in a minimum 355K PV.
Of all the places to be, this is the best spot for intensification.