ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Ryxn]

Karls the past 42 years be like..... (This will be full of interrupting tropical cyclones just a warning)
_______________________________________________________

1980 and 1998 Karls: (The Zen Times)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(1980)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_At ... icane_Karl

"Let's do what we do best and form in the subtropics and drift northeastward across the Atlantic. This is our safe place. And for the most part, we are not endangering anyone!"
_______________________________________________________

1998 Karl: "I'm a bit stronger than you though Ha-HAA"
_______________________________________________________

....2004 Karl (Part of the '04/'10 strong Karl era which is part of the larger '04-'22 Kaotic Klashing Karls or "Verdes vs Campeches") (2004 Karl is a Verde [Cape Verde]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(2004)

"Hey listen you two I'm stronger than both of your categories put together and I'm a Cape Verde storm too which means I'm better and produce more ACE AND I can still go northeast at the end to visit Europe so you're not all that 1980 and 1998 Karls!!"
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl (A Campeche [Bay of Campeche]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl

"Ugh, Cape Verde storms are overrated. You don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful!! I rapidly strengthened into a near-category 4 storm in the Bay of Campeche. You don't hear that everyday, eh K? There have been SOOO many Cape Verde storms that were as strong as you or stronger. Sounds like you are full of yourself 2004 Karl."
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "At least I didn't kill anyone and caused almost $4 billion in da-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Don't you da-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: (The '16/'22 weak Karl era)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_At ... Storm_Karl

"Hey both of you GET A GRIP. Yeah you don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful but you also don't need to be powerful to be a Cape Verde storm.......or any storm in general for that matter! Weaknesses make us hurricanes. No cane is immune. I had a very hard life and struggled to be strong all throughout it but sometimes it's OKAY to admit defeat. It's strong to be weak and I will forever be a Cape Verde storm and a humble one at that! ......Even if I was swept away at the end, I still I felt the speed and HEY, I'M THE LONGEST LIVING KARL AT 11 DAYS SO YOU CAN ALL HIT A MOUNTAIN RANGE!!"
_______________________________________________________

2004/2010 Karls: *silence*
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "You know I would NEVER kill anyone on purp-"
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "I hope the next Karl isn't lame and a weakling in the vastness of the ocean like you 2016 Karl and for the love of god doesn't choose the Bay of Campeche, with MILLIONS of people along its shores, to bask in like YOU 2010 Karl cause I would be really disapp-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Urgggggh-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: "Heyy that's mea-
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Hey be quiet it everyone, I'm right here! And at least I'm struggling here and won't get much stronger like a certain otherrrr Karl that should have retired."
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Hey my not retiring gifted you your name so shut it!"
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Jokes on you! I did shut it. I closed my circulation a few hours ago and I gotta say I am proud of myself. And btw I don't even like this name and I don't like your attitude. At least I won't become a horror-cane like you were!"
_______________________________________________________

*silence*
_______________________________________________________

All other Karls: "Honey you're moving awfully slow and that's unfortunately awfully '2019-onward' of you and that's concerning. It don't matter what strength you are. You can still bring the floods. So don't act like where nature is taking you is innocent because it's more the speed that makes it concerning. Just look what happened with Harvey, Dorian, and Ian? And Allison in 2001 had to retire and she didn't even get to hurricane strength."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Character break: Over the past few years, slow hurricanes and stalling hurricanes have become more frequent and it's very concerning)
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Touche. Yeah you guys are right. I need to be aware that things might not be peachy down the road. Now! Where's Ed Sheeran when you need some shearin'?! Maybe I need to have a serious talk with my girlfriend because boy do I need to be decoupled! Maybe I-"
_______________________________________________________

1980 Karl: "2022 Karl just STOP. Go be a fish in the subtropics like us Karls started out...
.............maybe a clown fish cause they're so funny."




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If only they all could be fish.

#ToBeWatchedAtADistance

Thank you for attending my TedTalk.

[underthwx]

Karls the past 42 years be like..... (This will be full of interrupting tropical cyclones just a warning)
_______________________________________________________

1980 and 1998 Karls: (The Zen Times)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(1980)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_At ... icane_Karl

"Let's do what we do best and form in the subtropics and drift northeastward across the Atlantic. This is our safe place. And for the most part, we are not endangering anyone!"
_______________________________________________________

1998 Karl: "I'm a bit stronger than you though Ha-HAA"
_______________________________________________________

....2004 Karl (Part of the '04/'10 strong Karl era which is part of the larger '04-'22 Kaotic Klashing Karls or "Verdes vs Campeches") (2004 Karl is a Verde [Cape Verde]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(2004)

"Hey listen you two I'm stronger than both of your categories put together and I'm a Cape Verde storm too which means I'm better and produce more ACE AND I can still go northeast at the end to visit Europe so you're not all that 1980 and 1998 Karls!!"
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl (A Campeche [Bay of Campeche]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl

"Ugh, Cape Verde storms are overrated. You don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful!! I rapidly strengthened into a near-category 4 storm in the Bay of Campeche. You don't hear that everyday, eh K? There have been SOOO many Cape Verde storms that were as strong as you or stronger. Sounds like you are full of yourself 2004 Karl."
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "At least I didn't kill anyone and caused almost $4 billion in da-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Don't you da-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: (The '16/'22 weak Karl era)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_At ... Storm_Karl

"Hey both of you GET A GRIP. Yeah you don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful but you also don't need to be powerful to be a Cape Verde storm.......or any storm in general for that matter! Weaknesses make us hurricanes. No cane is immune. I had a very hard life and struggled to be strong all throughout it but sometimes it's OKAY to admit defeat. It's strong to be weak and I will forever be a Cape Verde storm and a humble one at that! ......Even if I was swept away at the end but still I felt the speed!!"
_______________________________________________________

2004/2010 Karls: *silence*
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "You know I would NEVER kill anyone on purp-"
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "I hope the next Karl isn't lame and a weakling in the vastness of the ocean like you 2016 Karl and for the love of god doesn't choose the Bay of Campeche, with MILLIONS of people along its shores, to bask in like YOU 2010 Karl cause I would be really disapp-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Urgggggh-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: "Heyy that's mea-
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Hey be quiet it everyone, I'm right here! And at least I'm struggling here and won't get much stronger like a certain otherrrr Karl that should have retired."
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Hey my not retiring gifted you your name so shut it!"
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Jokes on you! I did shut it. I closed my circulation a few hours ago and I gotta say I am proud of myself. And btw I don't even like this name and I don't like your attitude. At least I won't become a horror-cane like you were!"
_______________________________________________________

*silence*
_______________________________________________________

All other Karls: "Honey you're moving awfully slow and that's unfortunately awfully '2019-onward' of you and that's concerning. It don't matter what strength you are. You can still bring the floods. So don't act like where nature is taking you is innocent because it's more the speed that makes it concerning. Just look what happened with Harvey, Dorian, and Ian? And Allison in 2001 had to retire and she didn't even get to hurricane strength."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Character break: Over the past few years, slow hurricanes and stalling hurricanes have become more frequent and it's very concerning)
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Touche. Yeah you guys are right. I need to be aware that things might not be peachy down the road. Now! Where's Ed Sheeran when you need some shearin'?! Maybe I have a girlfriend because boy I need to be decoupled! Maybe I-"
_______________________________________________________

1980 Karl: "2022 Karl just STOP. Go be a fish in the subtropics like us Karls started out...
.............maybe a clown fish cause they're so funny."




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If only they all could be fish.

#ToBeWatchedAtADistance

Thank you for attending my TedTalk.

Man.....I gotta give you credit for this bro....it's original for sure...I don't think I ever read something like this before on 2K....maybe I'm too sheltered....but I dug your post....

[Ryxn]

Karls the past 42 years be like..... (This will be full of interrupting tropical cyclones just a warning)
_______________________________________________________

1980 and 1998 Karls: (The Zen Times)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(1980)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_At ... icane_Karl

"Let's do what we do best and form in the subtropics and drift northeastward across the Atlantic. This is our safe place. And for the most part, we are not endangering anyone!"
_______________________________________________________

1998 Karl: "I'm a bit stronger than you though Ha-HAA"
_______________________________________________________

....2004 Karl (Part of the '04/'10 strong Karl era which is part of the larger '04-'22 Kaotic Klashing Karls or "Verdes vs Campeches") (2004 Karl is a Verde [Cape Verde]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl_(2004)

"Hey listen you two I'm stronger than both of your categories put together and I'm a Cape Verde storm too which means I'm better and produce more ACE AND I can still go northeast at the end to visit Europe so you're not all that 1980 and 1998 Karls!!"
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl (A Campeche [Bay of Campeche]):

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Karl

"Ugh, Cape Verde storms are overrated. You don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful!! I rapidly strengthened into a near-category 4 storm in the Bay of Campeche. You don't hear that everyday, eh K? There have been SOOO many Cape Verde storms that were as strong as you or stronger. Sounds like you are full of yourself 2004 Karl."
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "At least I didn't kill anyone and caused almost $4 billion in da-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Don't you da-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: (The '16/'22 weak Karl era)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_At ... Storm_Karl

"Hey both of you GET A GRIP. Yeah you don't need to be a Cape Verde storm to be powerful but you also don't need to be powerful to be a Cape Verde storm.......or any storm in general for that matter! Weaknesses make us hurricanes. No cane is immune. I had a very hard life and struggled to be strong all throughout it but sometimes it's OKAY to admit defeat. It's strong to be weak and I will forever be a Cape Verde storm and a humble one at that! ......Even if I was swept away at the end but still I felt the speed!!"
_______________________________________________________

2004/2010 Karls: *silence*
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "You know I would NEVER kill anyone on purp-"
_______________________________________________________

2004 Karl: "I hope the next Karl isn't lame and a weakling in the vastness of the ocean like you 2016 Karl and for the love of god doesn't choose the Bay of Campeche, with MILLIONS of people along its shores, to bask in like YOU 2010 Karl cause I would be really disapp-
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Urgggggh-"
_______________________________________________________

2016 Karl: "Heyy that's mea-
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Hey be quiet it everyone, I'm right here! And at least I'm struggling here and won't get much stronger like a certain otherrrr Karl that should have retired."
_______________________________________________________

2010 Karl: "Hey my not retiring gifted you your name so shut it!"
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Jokes on you! I did shut it. I closed my circulation a few hours ago and I gotta say I am proud of myself. And btw I don't even like this name and I don't like your attitude. At least I won't become a horror-cane like you were!"
_______________________________________________________

*silence*
_______________________________________________________

All other Karls: "Honey you're moving awfully slow and that's unfortunately awfully '2019-onward' of you and that's concerning. It don't matter what strength you are. You can still bring the floods. So don't act like where nature is taking you is innocent because it's more the speed that makes it concerning. Just look what happened with Harvey, Dorian, and Ian? And Allison in 2001 had to retire and she didn't even get to hurricane strength."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Character break: Over the past few years, slow hurricanes and stalling hurricanes have become more frequent and it's very concerning)
_______________________________________________________

2022 Karl: "Touche. Yeah you guys are right. I need to be aware that things might not be peachy down the road. Now! Where's Ed Sheeran when you need some shearin'?! Maybe I have a girlfriend because boy I need to be decoupled! Maybe I-"
_______________________________________________________

1980 Karl: "2022 Karl just STOP. Go be a fish in the subtropics like us Karls started out...
.............maybe a clown fish cause they're so funny."




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If only they all could be fish.

#ToBeWatchedAtADistance

Thank you for attending my TedTalk.

Man.....I gotta give you credit for this bro....it's original for sure...I don't think I ever read something like this before on 2K....maybe I'm too sheltered....but I dug your post....

Thanks man yeah it took me an hour to write and I have been editing bits of it the last hour as well aha. Like the "decoupled" part at the end. It now makes more sense with the "serious talk" association. I get random spurts of weather nerd humor in the middle of the night all the time ahaha

[GCANE]

06Z GFS, 355K PV Forecast showing the Jet north of Karl slowing eroding from run to run.
Door is opening slowly for Karl to possibly make a run into the main GoM.

[underthwx]

06Z GFS, 355K PV Forecast showing the Jet north of Karl slowing eroding from run to run.
Door is opening slowly for Karl to possibly make a run into the main GoM.

That would be a substantial change.....

[ThunderForce]

Is it becoming likely that Karl will end up hitting somewhere on the Gulf Coast?

[aspen]

Karl may be ugly and disheveled, but recon has found that it is indeed a TC, and a slightly stronger one at that (1002mb vs the 5am advisory’s 1006mb).

[tropicwatch]

Karl is already north of its 1pm forecast point and I'm not sure if the high-pressure area is going to make it far enough eastward to push Karl south.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=6543.875&y=5079&z=2&angle=0&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=80&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_09&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[cheezyWXguy]

It’s funny to me, Julia had all the convection but a disheveled circulation until the last minute, while Karl shows a very well defined circulation that really just needs some convection to start strengthening again

[wxman57]

No, there is nothing to indicate that Karl is going to track north into the northern Gulf or to Florida. Strong ridge is building south into the Gulf. There is 50-70 kts of westerly wind shear across the entire Gulf. This will halt Karl's north movement and shove it south into Mexico. It's very disorganized this morning, with an exposed center and barely 35kt winds in a few spots. It should remain a weak, disorganized storm until it dissipates over the southern BoC in 48-72 hrs.

[Sciencerocks]

[tropicwatch]

Karl is north and east of it 4am advisory 1pm forecast point.

[wxman57]

The exact position of the weak storm center is irrelevant. It cannot track north across the jet stream to reach the northern Gulf or Florida. Ridge building southward into the Gulf today will push anything in the BoC south, no matter where the center is.

[Teban54]

It’s funny to me, Julia had all the convection but a disheveled circulation until the last minute, while Karl shows a very well defined circulation that really just needs some convection to start strengthening again

You want convection? You get convection!

[Iceresistance]

BIG burst of convection near the CoC of Karl.

[ThunderForce]

According to the NHC, Karl is now moving slowly northward at about 3 MPH.

[cainjamin]

Not a single model is indicating any synoptic change that would let Karl move north. Sure it's moving north now, but 3 mph is basically a drift. As wxman57 said, even if something entirely unexpected happens and Karl does move north, it'll be decapitated by shear long before it reaches the Gulf Coast.

[wxman57]

According to the NHC, Karl is now moving slowly northward at about 3 MPH.

That motion is based on the previous center position to the current position, it does not necessarily reflect its present movement. Karl absolutely cannot track north across the Gulf. We'll begin seeing the south movement today.

[TallyTracker]

The forecast track and intensity is starting to remind me a bit of Larry 2003. It took a southward track in this area too.

[ElectricStorm]

Nice burst of convection near the center. I still don't think this will be able to get stronger than 45kts but at least it has some decent convection closer to the center now.