ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#221 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:28 am

The satellite is interesting, elongated for sure, but 2 (and really a 3rd if you count the one on the right entered the picture), GFS shows the sw lobe collapsing today, but it's been horrible on this lately (check simulated IR just 12 hours ago), so I think all the tracks are suspect until this thing gets settled. It's moving so slow, is so elongated, and complex, i just see things changing several times this week in prevailing thought. What Storm? Where is the storm or where will it actually form? (LLC) seems to be my current question

Image

Water vapor (my favorite thing to look at with messy systems) is still quite stark on the dry air to the north and west of 91L too, which tells me this isn't really changing much in the short term (few days). I'm starting to wonder if the SW lobe may even get over the islands. If the center shifts toward the SW one, things change quite a bit, if the Northern one stays, which is what most models have latched onto, the model projections are pretty similar, and the SE area, is a wildcard. Too elongated to be 100% sure, I think. The water vapor shot also makes me unsure about current model projections too, for the models to verify it would have to plow through the dark red area on the water vapor satellite. I still think the models generally have the right idea, though.
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:30 am, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#222 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:33 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#223 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:53 am

8 AM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure located several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development
of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is
forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5
to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#224 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:57 am

Imagine this never develops after all this time lol
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#225 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:58 am

IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.

Because all models have shown the NW movement so far. SW lobe can keep firing all it wants but right now there is very little support for it which is good because now it can recurve away.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#226 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:05 am

IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.
NHC is too good on track for any 5 day surprises, those days are long gone...intensity forecasting still very dynamic
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#227 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:23 am

jlauderdal wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.
NHC is too good on track for any 5 day surprises, those days are long gone...intensity forecasting still very dynamic



Yes I know, they are uncanny with track, but they aren't a messiah. I was curious if the SW area maintains convection if we would likely see some SW adjustments.

With Dorian '19 they were way off on the early track, quite significantly as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#228 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:24 am

skyline385 wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.

Because all models have shown the NW movement so far. SW lobe can keep firing all it wants but right now there is very little support for it which is good because now it can recurve away.


I appreciate the response, but I didnt ask WHY it was so NW.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#229 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:24 am

jlauderdal wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.
NHC is too good on track for any 5 day surprises, those days are long gone...intensity forecasting still very dynamic


With a formed TC, sure. These messy disturbances are a lot more unpredictable before they consolidate (post above beat me to it).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#230 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:30 am

IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.


This storm is going to be a fish.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#231 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:01 am

12z Best Track down from 14.7N to 14.5N.

AL, 91, 2022083012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 483W, 25, 1007, DB


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#232 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:02 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.


This storm is going to be a fish.

It's a bit different to track an actual storm with a circulation vs 2 competing vorticities.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#233 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:10 am

Image
Image

91L has lost a little latitude since 18z yesterday, but there is no real COC so not sure it makes much difference.

The NE and SW lobes continue to pulse, recent convection building @14N/50W with a hint of rotation?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#234 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:33 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.


This storm is going to be a fish.


For the mainland USA? Likely. But there are people who live where it still could affect if it moves a bit more west than expected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#235 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:34 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JttHDXo.gif
https://i.imgur.com/TfxhBqg.jpg

91L has lost a little latitude since 18z yesterday, but there is no real COC so not sure it makes much difference.

The NE and SW lobes continue to pulse, recent convection building @14N/50W with a hint of rotation?

If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the upper blob as the low-level circulation appears to be a little more robust... oh wait, better check first with the GFS and bet against whatever it is forecasting...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#236 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:13 am

Image
I had been looking at in close floaters to much, when you zoom back you can see 91L appears more like a cyclone and the NE blob appears dominant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#237 Postby JuracánBori » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:15 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BdKaS3E.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rjOZG5L.gif
Lots of convection, but strung out. SW lobe still firing and lots of lightning.



Wouldnt that increase the chance this storm moves more west? NHC seems really adamant on a strong NW movement.


This storm is going to be a fish.

No fish for the shipping lines. People always forget about them. Every year many boats get affected by these type of storms that stay out in the sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#238 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:21 am

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/BXXg5Av.gif
I had been looking at in close floaters to much, when you zoom back you can see 91L appears more like a cyclone and the NE blob appears dominant.

This has gone back and forth the last couple of days between the south and the north. The north seems to wane and the south one fires then the opposite. It is going to need to fire closer to the middle and pull both of them together. They are fighting each other right now. This also seems to be in it's own little moist pocket. If you look at the 5 day shear analysis at Univ. Wisconsin site, it has been moving in tandem between the 2 dry air masses. Right now the north looks better, but we will see if it still looks better at 6pm (est)
Actually, looking at the Univ. Wisconsin site, the southern lobe has a much more robust upper divergent flow over it...the north has very little...about the same on lower convergence

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#239 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2022 9:59 am

Still elongated.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#240 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:09 am

cycloneye wrote:Still elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/YcgEBp3.jpg


Spy areas at ~ 13.7N 50.5W and 14.5N 49W, overall sw to ne, just a mess
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