Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to
and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A
microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the
northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.
Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the
storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted
to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity
prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no
major changes from the previous advisory forecast.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle
is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast
and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE
consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022
Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to
and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A
microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the
northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.
Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the
storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted
to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity
prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no
major changes from the previous advisory forecast.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle
is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast
and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE
consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci