EPAC: BLAS - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Displaced ULAC alert. Don’t be surprised when it’s slop.

[cycloneye]

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly organized in
association with a broad low pressure area located a few hundred
miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 12/0000Z

C. 12.5N

D. 101.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 CURVED BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET=1.0
AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

This might be good to go actually, even if the deepest convection is far displaced to the SW.

[Yellow Evan]

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing and gradually becoming
better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in the next day or two while the system moves slowly northwestward
off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 130619
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 13/0600Z

C. 12.1N

D. 101.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT=1.5. LLCC
APPEARS QUITE BROAD CURRENTLY. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO IRREG CONVECTION
AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[Yellow Evan]

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. While recent satellite-derived winds
indicate the low does not yet have a well-defined center,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 131226
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 13/1200Z

C. 11.8N

D. 101.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF A 2.5. MET
IS 1.5 DUE TO DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE THE
SUDDEN DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER POSITION WHICH GRANTED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE BANDING FEATURES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

1. Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more
concentrated today, and environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development. A tropical depression is expected to
form during the next day or so while the system moves slowly
northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 13/1800Z

C. 12.5N

D. 102.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
IS 1.5 DUE TO DEVELOPING TREND. PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION AND BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/1213Z 12.0N 102.0W SSMIS


...NGUYEN

[zzh]

Monsoon trough.

[galaxy401]

Still looks too broad to develop right now. I see the circulation, but that western blob needs to dissipate so it can organize further.

[Yellow Evan]

Given it’s become a lot less W to E oriented and convection appears to be increasing over the center, I might classify at this point.

[cycloneye]

EP, 92, 2022061400, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1026W, 30, 1006, LO

[KirbyDude25]

Still looks too broad to develop right now. I see the circulation, but that western blob needs to dissipate so it can organize further.

Looks like that blob is mostly dissipated, with any remaining convection weak compared to the eastern side. I think we'll have a TD by Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

No more blob to the west.

[Kingarabian]

Close but still a bit troughy. On its way though.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

No more blob to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/qnJChQO.gif

This is looking increasingly classifiable. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they give it the nod soon.