ATL: NICOLE - Models

[AdamFirst]

Both 12z HWRF and HMON into the St. Lucie Inlet. Similar in intensity but HMON is about 6 hours ahead of the HWRF.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Both 12z HWRF and HMON into the St. Lucie Inlet. Similar in intensity but HMON is about 6 hours ahead of the HWRF.

CMC, GFS, HWRF, HMON all agree on hurricane at landfall in the 75-90 range. From Palm beach to Vero as a spread. Euro still not 100% tropical as of 6z.

[Blown Away]

12z Ukmet... N side of guidance, but all pretty close now...

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... 24 hours, 1000 mb the lowest so far

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Coming in much stronger than previous runs... Looks more tropical...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro landfalls further north vs the 6Z

[SFLcane]

12z ecmwf strongest run if i am not mistaken.

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro landfalls further north vs the 6Z

About the same near PB.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 72 is 50 miles NNW of Lake Okeechobee vs west of the Lake on the 6Z at 78

[Blown Away]

12z ecmwf strongest run if i am not mistaken.

https://i.postimg.cc/vBcNT8Hw/dddd.png

Landfall Jupiter.

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro 72 is 40 miles north of Lake Okeechobee vs west of the Lake on the 6Z at 78

lol 40 miles 20 miles this is not going to matter windfield will be huge.

[BobHarlem]

Yeah that windfield on the north side is huge and strong, the gradient difference vs the high over Virginia may be enough to get higher winds than typical for the pressure on the north side, which I hope people understand. It still could have some Cat 1 winds even if the pressure is in the low 990s.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro, unlike 6Z and 0Z, doesn't get to the GOM. So, the track is a bit NE of the prior two runs.

Edit: Correction: I was looking at 24 hour maps. The closer intervals show it barely in the NE GOM but it is a bit NE of the prior runs.

[AutoPenalti]

12Z Euro 72 is 40 miles north of Lake Okeechobee vs west of the Lake on the 6Z at 78

lol 40 miles 20 miles this is not going to matter windfield will be huge.

It does the further south this goes.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro only briefly goes into the Gulf around Cedar Key

[Stormlover1970]

12z Euro only briefly goes into the Gulf around Cedar Key

https://i.imgur.com/7GgwW5Y.png

nature coast pasco

[robbielyn]

12z Euro only briefly goes into the Gulf around Cedar Key

https://i.imgur.com/7GgwW5Y.png

nature coast pasco

Nature coast yes, but it is in Levy County not Pasco. Pasco is south of my county in hernando and Levy is north of Citrus which is north of me.

[Stormlover1970]

12z Euro only briefly goes into the Gulf around Cedar Key

https://i.imgur.com/7GgwW5Y.png

nature coast pasco

Nature coast yes, but it is in Levy County not Pasco. Pasco is south of my county in hernando and Levy is north of Citrus I which is north of me.

I meant it passes over pasco

[tolakram]

Euro trend

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM shifts south a bit, landfall WPB: