ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Just a small reminder....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcoUM18aEAA226n?format=png&name=small

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


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To my knowledge the boxes are more for risk assessment, as storms that pass outside of them are less likely to hit Florida

I've always thought that the Herbert Boxes are there to highlight a higher-than-normal risk of a Florida Landfall if a storm crosses it.

[msbee]

The 5pm track has shifted a little north and is showing a poleward turn at 4-5 days, like what most of the models are showing now. This could get uncomfortably close to the CONUS after passing over the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola.

coming my way, I guess

[skyline385]

Just a small reminder....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcoUM18aEAA226n?format=png&name=small

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.


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To my knowledge the boxes are more for risk assessment, as storms that pass outside of them are less likely to hit Florida

Yea that’s what i think of them too


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[Spacecoast]

Just saying there have been plenty of cases recently of systems entering the Herbert box and missing Florida.

To my knowledge the boxes are more for risk assessment, as storms that pass outside of them are less likely to hit Florida

Yea that’s what i think of them too

More applicable to stronger systems than TS's. but when a hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box #1 (since 1950)...

1. N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2. 20.58% go out to sea without hitting land.
3. Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4. Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of N Antilles).

[al78]

https://twitter.com/AlanSHolt/status/1570051977664688134

Interesting, I thought it might have been the 1900 hurricane which motivated building the sea wall.

It does make me wonder when people have looked at trends in insured loss from hurricanes, whether as well as taking population, wealth and inflation into account, whether they have also taken mitigation, improved construction and building codes over the decades into account as well which I expect will act to reduce any trend in losses, like the other factors act to inflate the trend.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd keep a close eye on this one. Watch to see if the LLC manages to sneak south of Hispaniola.

[aspen]

I'd keep a close eye on this one. Watch to see if the LLC manages to sneak south of Hispaniola.

Pretty much everywhere is on the table right now. If it pulls a Grace and relocates south of Hispaniola, this could be a threat to Cuba, Jamaica, the Yucatan, Mexico, or possibly the US Gulf coast. However, if it pulls an Isaias and relocates to the north, then it’ll probably go into the Bahamas, then from there it could threaten the US east coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda. Both possible scenarios/tracks send this over regions of 29-30+ C SSTs for a span of at least a few days, which isn’t ideal for a system so close to land, even in a year like this.

[jlauderdal]

The 5pm track has shifted a little north and is showing a poleward turn at 4-5 days, like what most of the models are showing now. This could get uncomfortably close to the CONUS after passing over the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola.

coming my way, I guess

Nothing you cant handle, no worries

[MGC]

Yes, going to be a close call for the islands. Lets hope the dry air and shear hold TD7 in check. Nice blowup of convection this afternoon. Good chance for upgrade later this evening......MGC

[wxman57]

I've always thought that the HeRbert Boxes are there to highlight a higher-than-normal risk of a Florida Landfall if a storm crosses it.

First of all it's the HEBERT (French name) box, not the Herbert (British name) box. Paul Hebert was a Cajun from south Louisiana. Cajun Heberts don't like it when people don't bother to read or spell their names incorrectly. I met Paul at a hurricane conference years ago. We sat next to each other. Second, it is not a predictor of whether a storm will strike Florida. It only identifies that most storms which end up striking Florida passed through that box. Storms that pass outside that box are generally not a Florida threat. In that way, it is a predictor. As for this storm, there is nothing indicating any threat to Florida or the East U.S. Coast. Trend is recurve farther east. I'm still uncertain that this system qualifies as a depression. The circulation is so weak and removed from the convection.

[Iceresistance]

ADT says that this is close to being Fiona

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2022 Time : 233020 UTC
Lat : 16:50:54 N Lon : 50:56:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 1007mb / 34kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -43.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 15:50:24 N Lon: 50:56:23 W

[tolakram]

IR Floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15734&y=7500&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 07, 2022091500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 514W, 30, 1008, TD

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal072022.dat

[msbee]

The 5pm track has shifted a little north and is showing a poleward turn at 4-5 days, like what most of the models are showing now. This could get uncomfortably close to the CONUS after passing over the Lesser Antilles, PR, and Hispaniola.

coming my way, I guess

Nothing you cant handle, no worries

I agree. After Irma we can handle anything.

[Blown Away]

Latest position is @16.9N/51.4W, appears TD7’s LLC is racing W exposed and convection is stuck… Shear must be picking up…

[InfernoFlameCat]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/dQ2nH8HL/goes16-vis-swir-07-L-202209142105.gif [/url]

Latest position is @16.9N/51.4W, appears TD7’s LLC is racing W exposed and convection is stuck… Shear must be picking up…

reminds me of earl. I hate shear sometimes

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is definitely hitting a wall, but systems like this...if they are able to wait out the shear will usually be formidable at some point.

[cycloneye]

TXNT23 KNES 150006
TCSNTL

A. 07L (NONAME)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.8N

D. 50.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/2002Z 16.9N 50.5W SSMIS


...KIBLER