ATL: EARL - Models

[SFLcane]

Likely won’t bother anyone but fish.

https://i.postimg.cc/HxJTmcpB/5-AECEC15-EE1-B-4-EDC-AD66-ACBEF1767347.gif

There is an island in the middle of the Atlantic named Bermuda.

Lol almost forgot Yea Bermuda. Hopefully not much of a concern for them.

[MHC Tracking]

Looks like 06z GFS completely junks the Gulf modelcane. We can now take the model output for 91L more seriously.

[aspen]

Impressive. Every single global model develops 91L and makes it a hurricane, and they all have pretty much the same close call OTS track. Even the CMC agrees with the rest, and it’s been the most conservative model all year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wait so the ridging that was predicted merely days ago is no longer the case? I’m just curious as to what models are seeing that make them want to think that this thing’s gonna make a sharp recurve right off the Bahamas coast

[pgoss11]

I have to think that until we have an actual storm these runs will vary. This future storm is over a week out from affecting the CONUS, if it does, and we know how fickle model runs can be this far out.

[AutoPenalti]

I thought models already pointed to a CoC?

[Nederlander]

Wait so the ridging that was predicted merely days ago is no longer the case? I’m just curious as to what models are seeing that make them want to think that this thing’s gonna make a sharp recurve right off the Bahamas coast

Trough expected to open the escape hatch.

[toad strangler]

Wait so the ridging that was predicted merely days ago is no longer the case? I’m just curious as to what models are seeing that make them want to think that this thing’s gonna make a sharp recurve right off the Bahamas coast

500mb can't be trusted outside of 24 - 48 hours

[tomatkins]

Wait so the ridging that was predicted merely days ago is no longer the case? I’m just curious as to what models are seeing that make them want to think that this thing’s gonna make a sharp recurve right off the Bahamas coast

Trough expected to open the escape hatch.

Any time you see a stall this early on, assume its gonna be a recurve (or less likely, a long tracker - anything but a stall). To get a stall requires a fine balance of forces that is almost impossible to predict this far out.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1564227115343642626





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[Blown Away]

00z ECENS


06z ECENS

[pgoss11]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vTb9zQRT/63-E4936-D-B960-449-A-A12-F-58454999-B06-B.jpg [/url]
00z ECENS

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDx7PY8Q/8-BF2-BDB2-E4-FC-445-A-AC90-072-FE3-A73-D20.jpg [/url]
06z ECENS

Is that trending west?

[AutoPenalti]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/vTb9zQRT/63-E4936-D-B960-449-A-A12-F-58454999-B06-B.jpg [/url]
00z ECENS

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDx7PY8Q/8-BF2-BDB2-E4-FC-445-A-AC90-072-FE3-A73-D20.jpg [/url]
06z ECENS

Is that trending west?

Spread is wider in the medium range.

[sma10]

Wait so the ridging that was predicted merely days ago is no longer the case? I’m just curious as to what models are seeing that make them want to think that this thing’s gonna make a sharp recurve right off the Bahamas coast

500mb can't be trusted outside of 24 - 48 hours

Even if being charitable and saying 4-5 days out could potentially give a trusted signal .. you certainly cannot trust 7-10 days. And this is true even in a relatively benign pattern.

The SW Atlantic setup next week looks highly complex. Add to the mix a very tricky genesis, plus unknown system strength, we're still almost in dartboard territory here

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS still strongly favors missing FL to the east. But there remain about 10% of members that head toward Cuba and then turn north into FL meaning don't rest easy just yet. Furthermore, the 6Z EPS at its 144 cutoff does have a bigger spread with more members in the southern envelope of possibilities vs the 0Z EPS meaning most likely a somewhat higher than 10% danger to FL.

[Spacecoast]

Really liking Tomer's site for graphics / info...

[skyline385]

Really liking Tomer's site for graphics / info...

Are you using tropycal to generate these or does he have them on his site to use?


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[Blown Away]

I’m struggling w/ that very sharp recurve in Aug/Sept at only @30N. I think models may be moving 91L to fast and to quick to go NW. I’m not saying it will impact Bahamas or CONUS. I just think there will be a W trend mostly due to a slower system in the models. JMHO.

[Spacecoast]

Really liking Tomer's site for graphics / info...

Are you using tropycal to generate these or does he have them on his site to use?


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He has them on his site:
http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/
Here's another 91L graphic...

[aspen]

ICON finishes off at 948mb — very strong for this model — and still hasn’t started recurving. So far it still has the most SW track out of the global models.