ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#161 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:34 pm

Tailgater33 wrote:I’m shocked they haven’t flown to center we see on sat. Just south of hot tower currently firing off.


They will probably now do a SW/NE pass throught he main LLC. that thing to the NW is just an old vort spit out from early convection.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#162 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:45 pm

Hammy wrote:Not sure why they named an open trough when we've had three systems that do meet the criteria go unnamed this season

The NHC has seemingly been a little picky this year. Maybe the MDR invests that were likely storms weren’t upgraded due to ASCAT never getting any good passes? Hopefully they address these systems in post-season, because it’s possible we’ve missed out on an additional 2-4 NS by this point.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#163 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:47 pm

That hot tower looks good as the sun hits it on visible. Don't be shocked if Karl tries for Cat 1 intensity.

Here's a video update this evening:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gO18autdhk
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#164 Postby Tailgater33 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:11 pm

Finally, VDM approximately 20.5N 95.0 W
My guess
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#165 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:14 pm

LLC nearly stacked under this pre initial core convection... should wrap up pretty fast overnight. I would expect good deal stronger than NHC>

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#166 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:LLC nearly stacked under this pre initial core convection... should wrap up pretty fast overnight. I would expect good deal stronger than NHC>

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc22/ATL/14L.KARL/ssmis/91h/20221011.2238.f16.91h.14L.KARL.35kts.1008mb.19.4N.94.2W.060pc.jpg


It broke off nicely from that vort south of IoT.
The way the bay is shaped will create a strong surface convergence.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#167 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:LLC nearly stacked under this pre initial core convection... should wrap up pretty fast overnight. I would expect good deal stronger than NHC>

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc22/ATL/14L.KARL/ssmis/91h/20221011.2238.f16.91h.14L.KARL.35kts.1008mb.19.4N.94.2W.060pc.jpg

Agreed, the way those convective bands are setting up looks to favor whatever llc center is under that convection at 20.5N 94.5W. Maybe the beginnings of a cdo
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#168 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:21 pm

Sun goes down and the towers come out.
Picking up a good lightning show.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#169 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:27 pm

Julia's had a pretty weird journey... made landfall as a hurricane, crossed over into the EPAC, and is now in the GOMEX (energy associated with it at least) as TS Karl.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#170 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:35 pm

Karl is having a lot of convection popping off all over the gulf.

GOES-16 CONUS 2 hour loop IR - https://col.st/R1LxH

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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#171 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:35 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#172 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:37 pm

A couple nice rotating towers right on the LL vort.
Also a curved band forming on the north quad quickly wrapping into it.
Looks real good.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#173 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:39 pm

GCANE wrote:A couple nice rotating towers right on the LL vort.
Also a curved band forming on the north quad quickly wrapping into it.
Looks real good.

entire LLC should also continue to swing NE as it wraps up bringing N and east of probably every model and member.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#174 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:47 pm

There are a couple of ships northwest of the center reporting pressures around 1008. Unfortunately, no wind readings.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#175 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:A couple nice rotating towers right on the LL vort.
Also a curved band forming on the north quad quickly wrapping into it.
Looks real good.

entire LLC should also continue to swing NE as it wraps up bringing N and east of probably every model and member.


For sure.
Looking at 200mb vort on CIMSS, the PV streamers on the Rossby Wave (some call this a Jet) are slowly lifting north.
Also looking at RAP analysis at 300mb, the Jet speeds drop dramatically about 150 miles south of Houston.
Karl is well removed from this and sits in an ARWB, NHC refers to this as a High-Pressure system in its discussion.
I suspect Karl will strengthen enough to push that Jet even further north.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#176 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:53 pm

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:A couple nice rotating towers right on the LL vort.
Also a curved band forming on the north quad quickly wrapping into it.
Looks real good.

entire LLC should also continue to swing NE as it wraps up bringing N and east of probably every model and member.


For sure.
Looking at 200mb vort on CIMSS, the PV streamers on the Rossby Wave (some call this a Jet) are slowly lifting north.
Also looking at RAP analysis at 300mb, the Jet speeds drop dramatically about 150 miles south of Houston.
Karl is well removed from this and sits in an ARWB, NHC refers to this as a High-Pressure system in its discussion.
I suspect Karl will strengthen enough to push that Jet even further north.


yeah, and if it manages to deepen to a hurricane in the next 12 to 18 hours.. then we have to start watching for it to connect with the trough...


also fresh new deep towers building on the NW core moving south... may ramp up real quick.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#177 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:54 pm

Down to 1006 mb in the new advisory.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#178 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:56 pm

Two feeder bands converging NE of the LLC and firing some heavy-duty convection there.
That'll push that jet north.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#179 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:entire LLC should also continue to swing NE as it wraps up bringing N and east of probably every model and member.


For sure.
Looking at 200mb vort on CIMSS, the PV streamers on the Rossby Wave (some call this a Jet) are slowly lifting north.
Also looking at RAP analysis at 300mb, the Jet speeds drop dramatically about 150 miles south of Houston.
Karl is well removed from this and sits in an ARWB, NHC refers to this as a High-Pressure system in its discussion.
I suspect Karl will strengthen enough to push that Jet even further north.


yeah, and if it manages to deepen to a hurricane in the next 12 to 18 hours.. then we have to start watching for it to connect with the trough...


also fresh new deep towers building on the NW core moving south... may ramp up real quick.


CAPE ramped up very quickly in the GoM today,
Karl tracking into this and we all know what will happen.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#180 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:02 pm

Back to the barn for recon
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