ATL: EARL - Models

[Blown Away]

Very weird, GFS has this way further north now.

Don’t think so it’s about same spot vs 18z, just a bit stronger. No phantom GOM storm so far, not sure what effect, if any, it will have.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge overhead here, doesn’t seem to be digging down as much.

[skyline385]

Ridge weakening over FL now?

[Keldeo1997]

Imo the Trough is to far North to pick this up with a Canadian ridge building behind it. Probably going to stall.

[AutoPenalti]

Completely different ridge placement now.

[skyline385]

Completely different ridge placement now.

Still looks like its going to be an easy recurve

[Meteorcane]

Extremely different Synoptic patterns between the 00Z GFS/CMC from the 12Z Euro heading into next weekend and the following week. Active northern branch shortwaves which really weaken the W-Atlantic ridge, and result in a safe recurve rather than a potential stall-out in weak steering in the CMC/GFS solution. The EC also seems to have a more western placement of the high amplitude SW US ridge which results in a generally more amplified/less progressive pattern. I would say the odds (taking into account the ensembles) do favor the GFS/CMC more progressive pattern, let's hope it holds.

[SouthFLTropics]

Can't say it is 100% a fish on this one... Bermuda gets smacked pretty good on this GFS run.

[Blown Away]

Extremely sharp recurve at that latitude during Aug/Sept.

Bermuda’s turn to get whacked by a GFS model cane!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/697996354537914448/1013665337033633832/unknown.png

Imo the Trough is to far North to pick this up with a Canadian ridge building behind it. Probably going to stall.

There is a little shortwave that dives down off Long Island that is supposed to catch potential Danielle and push her out to sea (maybe clipping Newfoundland down the road). Now, I always say I'd rather be in the model crosshairs of a hurricane at 120hrs plus than be in the model crosshairs of a hurricane at under 120hrs. A couple of days ago the models were clobbering Florida with a major hurricane. Hopefully, the OTS scenario will verify but right now it is 50/50 I'd say between OTS and a stall off the SE Coast.

[AtlanticWind]

We might expect some more extreme swings in modeling out beyond 5 days due
to the relatively slow movement of 91L

[LarryWx]

Last 3 runs of GEFS shows no more than ~10% of members hitting FL with a TC from this.
Opinions?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

We might expect some more extreme swings in modeling out beyond 5 days due
to the relatively slow movement of 91L

Exactly, if 91L isn't quick enough it'll miss the trough-induced weakness and then all bets are off. By Wednesday or Thursday, we should have a better idea.

[LarryWx]

Very weird, GFS has this way further north now.

Don’t think so it’s about same spot vs 18z, just a bit stronger. No phantom GOM storm so far, not sure what effect, if any, it will have.

1. No phantom cane on 0Z GFS and yet it still recurves away from CONUS.

2. 0Z UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 45.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2022 0 14.1N 45.7W 1010 28
1200UTC 29.08.2022 12 13.9N 47.4W 1010 26
0000UTC 30.08.2022 24 14.2N 49.1W 1010 24
1200UTC 30.08.2022 36 13.7N 50.0W 1010 24
0000UTC 31.08.2022 48 14.2N 50.2W 1008 23
1200UTC 31.08.2022 60 15.2N 50.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 01.09.2022 72 15.8N 52.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 84 16.9N 54.4W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.09.2022 96 17.6N 56.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 02.09.2022 108 18.9N 58.5W 1006 29
0000UTC 03.09.2022 120 19.3N 60.9W 1006 35
1200UTC 03.09.2022 132 20.0N 62.8W 1007 36
0000UTC 04.09.2022 144 20.8N 64.3W 1006 38

[Meteorcane]

FWIW 00Z ICON continues with more of a stall setup near the Bahamas (it only runs to 180 hours) stronger ridge, weaker northern shortwave (which prevents an initial recurve). UKMET is a bit further south than the GFS/CMC but since it only goes out to 144 hour not sure how the pattern would evolve beyond that. Unfortunately we probably won't know for a few days, although the system will probably take that long to organize anyway.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS/EURO both agree with a very sharp recurve well E of Bahamas & CONUS with Bermuda in play.

GFS gave up the phantom GOM MH and for now EURO kinda caved to GFS which has called for recurve for a while.

[MHC Tracking]

Still some track bifurcation related to ridge strength/short term intensity.

[johngaltfla]

SFlCane, Can you post a visual of or link to the Eps control situation you mentioned about the storm hitting SFl
And then traveling up the state? Thank you

Unfortunately I can’t not allowed to post on S2K. Wish I could sorry.

Thanks for the heads up though. That explains the long range forecast I saw on Accuweather. The 8th and 9th would not be fun in West Florida either.

[SFLcane]

Likely won’t bother anyone but fish.

[cycloneye]

Likely won’t bother anyone but fish.

https://i.postimg.cc/HxJTmcpB/5-AECEC15-EE1-B-4-EDC-AD66-ACBEF1767347.gif

There is an island in the middle of the Atlantic named Bermuda.