EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[weeniepatrol]

This is about as much of a 5.5 as Irma was when Recon found a Category 5.

Yeah symmetry exhibits a far more significant correlation to intensity than CDO temperatures.

[weeniepatrol]

Symmetry;



Eye temperature;



....CDO temperature

[Ntxw]

Best visible for an EPAC so far this season.

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2022071118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1243W, 115, 958

[Yellow Evan]

Eye temperature hovering around 19C. Excluding polar satellites, warmest eye ever measured in this basin is 21C that I’ve found, attained by Hurricane Daniel in 2006.

[Yellow Evan]

Back to steady T6.0.

[skyline385]

Yea CDO cooling again

[aspen]

Add this to my list of EPac storms I wish were Atlantic recurves so we could get recon for them.

While not exactly the same, Sam ‘21 had both a similar eye and CDO symmetry and temperature, so if the limited recon from that storm’s peak tells us anything about systems with similar CDOs/eyes (Douglas, Felicia, and now Darby), then Darby could be 10-15 kt stronger. The biggest difference is that Sam (and Irma, which was brought up by someone else) were over waters that supported a much higher MPI than what Darby is over now.

[Emmett_Brown]

Darby looks awesome. Has great symmetry. Reminds me of Andrew. Interesting that it is heading due W, or almost slightly S of due W just like Andrew did when it had a similar appearance.

[Cyclenall]

Eye temperature hovering around 19C. Excluding polar satellites, warmest eye ever measured in this basin is 21C that I’ve found, attained by Hurricane Daniel in 2006.

Wow I didn't know Daniel had that "record", I know its from your own research. How far back were you able to look?

[weeniepatrol]

This is certainly fascinating... apparently each and every iteration of Darby has been a category 3!

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1546581009323347968

[hurricanes1234]

I am literally drooling.

[skyline385]

Probably the best loop i have seen so far

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1546578927560294404

[cycloneye]

Papín does it again.

...DARBY STILL SMALL BUT NOW A MIGHTY CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE..

INIT 11/2100Z 14.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

[weeniepatrol]

Great discussion.

The latest UW-CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate has
stabilized somewhat at T6.1/117 kt despite the warming eye
temperature. However, very small tropical cyclones like Darby are
often underestimated using objective Dvorak guidance, as was seen
during similarly small systems, like Dorian in 2019 when it near the
Bahamas. I also suspect the eyewall cloud tops have warmed a tad due
to diurnal fluctuations and could cool once again during the typical
nighttime max. The current intensity this advisory will be set at
120 kt, indicating a remarkable intensification rate of 65 kt in the
past 24 hours.

[al78]

Wow what a beautiful storm, and no threat to anyone. The small tightly wound nature reminds me somewhat of hurricane Charley (2004) without the destruction potential. The wind radii are a bit smaller than in Charley.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye temperature hovering around 19C. Excluding polar satellites, warmest eye ever measured in this basin is 21C that I’ve found, attained by Hurricane Daniel in 2006.

Wow I didn't know Daniel had that "record", I know its from your own research. How far back were you able to look?

Record holder is actually Barbara 19 by .4 degrees, actually (I made a rounding error originally). Now this isn’t as impressive as one may seem. The viewing angle is poor in the area where upper elechon storms form especially for pinholes (remember Patricia was OW on GOES 13 for example) and GOES satellites prior to 2017 were 4 km resolution and prior to 1997 were 7 km resolution and prior to 1985 8 km resolution, which deflates the eye temperature of older storms significantly.

[Ntxw]

Euro and GFS do bring remnants to effect the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T6.5 again.