ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

When the NHC gives it a name we will name it. This policy has been in place since I joined and it won't be changing.

[wxman57]

One thing I noticed is that those 35-40 kt winds were measured when the plane was on descent from 4100m to 3500m. May not be valid.

[wxman57]

Would NHC have posted that they will initiate advisories on either PTC/Karl if they were going to at 5 PM? Or is there still a chance we might see an advisory at 5 PM without that?

Both. NHC forecasters are trying to figure out where to put a center and whether to issue advisories. I think they'll initiate advisories, probably before 5pm EDT.

[Aric Dunn]

As soon as recon flies north a little more near that Tower they will find what the rest of everyone is looking for...

[Aric Dunn]

Solid NW winds at TS FL and Near TS sfmr on the SW side. good sign organization is improving.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[InfernoFlameCat]

We officially have Karl. Nhc just updated their page

[wxman57]

Certainly appears to be a circulation near 20N/94.8W, but not sure it's at the surface yet. Come on, NHC, make the call.

Oh, they just did. Matches my position from earlier.

[underthwx]

Would NHC have posted that they will initiate advisories on either PTC/Karl if they were going to at 5 PM? Or is there still a chance we might see an advisory at 5 PM without that?

Both. NHC forecasters are trying to figure out where to put a center and whether to issue advisories. I think they'll initiate advisories, probably before 5pm EDT.

Their decisions affect economy's of a given region, people's livelihoods, transportation centers, on, and on, and on. Responsibilities on a scale so enormous, most of us don't ever give it a thought, human nature I guess. These individuals at the NHC are in the business of making solid decisions, providing the best possible outcomes as possible, during difficult circumstances, for millions of people. In my opinion, they are underpaid.....

[ChrisH-UK]

TS Karl GOES-16 Geo Colour and Longwave IR

Source - https://col.st/i9a7c

[Iceresistance]

First discussion for Karl

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

[lrak]

Woohoo, Karl brings a little swell to Lrak. Cough cough, I'm feeling sick...lol

[galaxy401]

NHC has it drifting northwest before turning south to Mexico. Too much shear up north.

Karl really formed quick. Wasn't it still 20% yesterday? Another Atlantic storm the models failed to pick up.

[Nimbus]

Check the cirrus outflow in the Vapor loop, shear is mostly north of initialized position.
I didn't really want to look at another model run involving the gulf this year but tonights runs should be interesting.
Ian had me worrying about Tampa until I saw a ghost rising from St. Louis Cemetery No. 1 and the HMON flopped 1000 miles to South Carolina.

[tolakram]

Woohoo, Karl brings a little swell to Lrak. Cough cough, I'm feeling sick...lol

Surf's up!

[Hammy]

Not sure why they named an open trough when we've had three systems that do meet the criteria go unnamed this season

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why they named an open trough when we've had three systems that do meet the criteria go unnamed this season

I agree on the other 3 systems..

but Karl is by no means an open trough. Definitely closed and quickly organizing more.

[cycloneye]

Interesting archieve of this name back in 2010.

 https://twitter.com/FerragamoWx/status/1579959800301228032

[Tailgater33]

I’m shocked they haven’t flown to center we see on sat. Just south of hot tower currently firing off.