ATL: FIONA - Models

[caneman]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

The only thing clear is that is a long way off and error margins are huge at that range

[Jr0d]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

The only thing clear is that is a long way off and error margins are huge at that range

The overall pattern this year is OTS, Even without modem support it would be the safe guess. We will see though.

Definitely a possible mid to NE threat down the road...in my amateur opinion. Florida is not 100% safe but highly unlikely again just my opinion

[caneman]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

The only thing clear is that is a long way off and error margins are huge at that range

The overall pattern this year is OTS, Even without modem support it would be the safe guess. We will see though.

Definitely a possible mid to NE threat down the road...in my amateur opinion. Florida is not 100% safe but highly unlikely again just my opinion

There are many years with the majority of storms going out to sea yet 1 or 2 sneak through

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF is west…

[BobHarlem]

0z Earlies. Notable TVCN shifted west, it was right of the official track at 18z, now it's left of it.

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[toad strangler]

The GFS shows a clear weakness over Florida and the SW Atlantic with the Bermuda High shunted east. So the storms turns north over the Eastern Bahamas. The forecast is similar to the Euro.

The only thing clear is that is a long way off and error margins are huge at that range

The overall pattern this year is OTS, Even without modem support it would be the safe guess. We will see though.

Definitely a possible mid to NE threat down the road...in my amateur opinion. Florida is not 100% safe but highly unlikely again just my opinion

The overall pattern almost every single year in recorded history with systems in this spot is OTS. It’s the Atlantic Basin super highway. That’s the safest call to make at this juncture.

[tolakram]

HWRF, unrealistically aggressive based on expected conditions IMO.

[caneman]

The only thing clear is that is a long way off and error margins are huge at that range

The overall pattern this year is OTS, Even without modem support it would be the safe guess. We will see though.

Definitely a possible mid to NE threat down the road...in my amateur opinion. Florida is not 100% safe but highly unlikely again just my opinion

The overall pattern almost every single year in recorded history with systems in this spot is OTS. It’s the Atlantic Basin super highway. That’s the safest call to make at this juncture.

There is no safe call to make right now. It's too far out and some models have shifted West. Some taking it just South of the islands. Some keep it weaker and further West. There is no super highway OTS from just below the islands. And each storm and set up and timing is completely unique. I don't care if 90% of storms go out to sea. You don't know which will be the 10%.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF, unrealistically aggressive based on expected conditions IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/vGxSryO.gif

After the upgrade to Fiona, I wonder how far off this really will be. The fact that this system has been stronger than what much of the guidance has suggested is a bit concerning to me.

[SFLcane]

Indeed!

0z Earlies. Notablle TVCN shifted west, it was right of the official track at 18z, now it's left of it.
https://i.imgur.com/5Tf5XQu.png

[floridasun]

i think all depend on weakness that may happen with high off coast line

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon stays south of Puerto Rico and cuts a hard right just as it gets near Hispaniola. It winds up east of the 12z position toward the end, generally heading near or west of Bermuda.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC is all in on its west track… stays weak just long enough to miss the northeast connection and slips in under the ridge and is GOM bound. Either the CMC is a genius or it’s in crack. I’m guessing the latter.


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[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS stronger with a potential hurricane threat for PR. Looks like its overall much further east than the 18z run which makes sense to me, stronger storms usually get north quicker.

Edit: Looks like it's turning back to the west as a major near Bermuda. Way far out though

[Keldeo1997]

Looks like its getting trapped. Watch out east coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC has it in for NOLA… Katrina repeat if that happens.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like its getting trapped. Watch out east coast.

Looks like a slowdown and possibly a loop but on the 500mb there is clearly an exit North. Should get scooped up and out.


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[blp]

GEFS is further west than the Ops run

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC is all in on its west track… stays weak just long enough to miss the northeast connection and slips in under the ridge and is GOM bound. Either the CMC is a genius or it’s in crack. I’m guessing the latter.


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Actually seems like a pretty significant eastward shift to me, at least in the long range. Maybe it’s finally on its way to eventually converge with the other solutions