EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[aspen]

Darby is probably near or at its maximum potential intensity of 120-125kt now. That eye is way too clear and well-defined for a Cat 3. Unfortunately, like Douglas ‘20 and Felicia ‘21, its kinda warm cloud tops could make Dvorak estimates difficult

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1546513845086298113?s=21&t=6xGYcacI7TIZoo2nGyRBjQ

Edit: this is Daniel 06 which Darby might rival soon anyway so tweet is still relevant.

Webb is having some fun with this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546524680714010625

Not cool how Webb is acting given it’s just a slight mistake in a non-professional setting but I don’t want to get too off topic here.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 155032 UTC
Lat : 14:35:24 N Lon : 123:45:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 949mb / 117kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C

[Ntxw]

Lots of stunning imagery. Eye is pretty, nothing but clear ocean below.

[ElectricStorm]

Beautiful storm. Probably well into the Cat 4 range now

[weeniepatrol]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1546513845086298113?s=21&t=6xGYcacI7TIZoo2nGyRBjQ

Edit: this is Daniel 06 which Darby might rival soon anyway so tweet is still relevant.

Webb is having some fun with this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546524680714010625

Not going to end well given the last interaction these two had

Also, what an impressive buzzsaw!

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1546513845086298113?s=21&t=6xGYcacI7TIZoo2nGyRBjQ

Edit: this is Daniel 06 which Darby might rival soon anyway so tweet is still relevant.

Webb is having some fun with this

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1546524680714010625

Not cool how Webb is acting given it’s just a slight mistake in a non-professional setting but I don’t want to get too off topic here.

Think Webb is doing that because Mike blocked him in their last conversation. Anyways, apologies for going off topic, i just found the Twitter post hilariously petty.

[wx98]

This season seems similar to 2010 that had Cat 5 Celia and Cat 3 Darby and kinda tapered off into August and September. I wonder if the Atlantic will pick up soon and EPAC will shut down like that year.

[Yellow Evan]

Fading some for now cloud tops wise but the eye is getting more defined.

[skyline385]

Looking so darned good in this frame

[weeniepatrol]

In all honesty this is probably around 140-150mph right now

[weeniepatrol]

[Yellow Evan]

Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2022 Time : 165032 UTC
Lat : 14:36:35 N Lon : 124:00:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 949mb / 117kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Barely sustaining T6.0.

[Kingarabian]

InB4 SMAP says this is a TS.

Beautiful classic EPAC annular hurricane. No basin does annular canes like the EPAC.

[Ntxw]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/996110441895960798/unknown.png

Barely sustaining T6.0.

Likely peaked for this round. I say give it the deserved 120kts. It may be able to sustain or not fall off too far from here the rest of today given the "A" word-like form.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/996110441895960798/unknown.png

Barely sustaining T6.0.

Another example of a EPac storm likely in the 125-135 kt range that only has T#6.0 cloud tops. Just look at the structure and eye on visible imagery, it’s clearly more than just a high end 3/low end 4.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/michaeligbino10/status/1546543388429893640

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/996110441895960798/unknown.png

Barely sustaining T6.0.

Likely peaked for this round. I say give it the deserved 120kts. It may be able to sustain or not fall off too far from here the rest of today given the "A" word-like form.

This has another day over decent conditions. The eye has slowly warmed throughout the morning and the CDO has axissymetrized as a whole but in this marginal thermodynamic environment, cloud tops are vulnerable to diurnal fluctuations so they tend to wane during the afternoons and waxe at night.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 111807
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 11/1730Z

C. 14.6N

D. 124.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IS 6.0. MET = 4.5 AND PT = 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

This is about as much of a 5.5 as Irma was when Recon found a Category 5.