ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563990177470681090




Need to watch this. I can tell you a certain "D" storm that really benefited from Center relocations...

[Nimbus]

Nearly all the hurricanes that impact SFL from the E will have to come in S of 25N/70-75W to make it. Nearly all above those marks will miss, 12z ECMWF was N of those marks so recurve away from SFL likely.

Well 12Z ECMWF was actually very similar to the 1947 FLL cane which was the one exception to what you said above.

The 1947 Hurricane bombed in the same way current models are suggesting just before landfall in Ft Lauderdale and prompted Congress to pass legislation to improve the Levees in New Orleans.

[Blown Away]

91L still chugging W.

[Iceresistance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/prPdZB5K/92529250.gif [/url]

91L still chugging W.

It's like Dorian, refused to move north until it reached the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Latest. Convection popping!

[SFLcane]

If this one develops I am not getting good vibes for the east coast.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564014915022737413

[Blown Away]

The W moving hurricanes into the Bahamas area almost always have a complicated trough/ridge setup. Majority of SFL impacts, which are near the top % wise in basin turn N before making into the GOM, which in the big picture is a very narrow area. I think the present movement of 91L almost due W will have more to do with potential CONUS impacts down the road than anything else. JMHO

[Nimbus]

The W moving hurricanes into the Bahamas area almost always have a complicated trough/ridge setup. Majority of SFL impacts, which are near the top % wise in basin turn N before making into the GOM, which in the big picture is a very narrow area. I think the present movement of 91L almost due W will have more to do with potential CONUS impacts down the road than anything else. JMHO

Dry air intrusion keeps it weak with little propensity to try and recurve but of course now that there is a core structure and enough convection to keep its diurnal pulse it is a serious future threat.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions ahead of the system do not appear
conducive for significant development, a tropical depression, at the
very least, is likely to form later this week while the disturbance
moves slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph,
toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Blown Away]

The W moving hurricanes into the Bahamas area almost always have a complicated trough/ridge setup. Majority of SFL impacts, which are near the top % wise in basin turn N before making into the GOM, which in the big picture is a very narrow area. I think the present movement of 91L almost due W will have more to do with potential CONUS impacts down the road than anything else. JMHO

Dry air intrusion keeps it weak with little propensity to try and recurve but of course now that there is a core structure and enough convection to keep its diurnal pulse it is a serious future threat.

Persistent systems sometimes have a tendency to avoid negative conditions regardless of modeling. IMO, in the MDR shallow systems tend to adjust W to avoid.

[Category5Kaiju]

So is this system trying to correct more west?

[Iceresistance]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions ahead of the system do not appear
conducive for significant development, a tropical depression, at the
very least, is likely to form later this week while the disturbance
moves slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph,
toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system can be found in high seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

50/70 . . .

Well, this is likely to become Danielle in the next several days.

[DestinHurricane]

So is this system trying to correct more west?

I'm not sure but the convection consolidated to the SW and we aren't seeing any "reformations" to the north which sometimes happen.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1564016256201654273

[chaser1]

WAIT?! A (practically) naked swirl, still heading due west? Ah-ha! Maybe 91L IS actually our GFS phantom Gulf hurricane. Very very coy, GFS

[sma10]

Nearly all the hurricanes that impact SFL from the E will have to come in S of 25N/70-75W to make it. Nearly all above those marks will miss, 12z ECMWF was N of those marks so recurve away from SFL likely.

Well 12Z ECMWF was actually very similar to the 1947 FLL cane which was the one exception to what you said above.

There are more exceptions than just 1947.

[DestinHurricane]

Nearly all the hurricanes that impact SFL from the E will have to come in S of 25N/70-75W to make it. Nearly all above those marks will miss, 12z ECMWF was N of those marks so recurve away from SFL likely.

Well 12Z ECMWF was actually very similar to the 1947 FLL cane which was the one exception to what you said above.

There are more exceptions than just 1947.

Yeah, in fact, one with a certain A name.

[sma10]

Well 12Z ECMWF was actually very similar to the 1947 FLL cane which was the one exception to what you said above.

There are more exceptions than just 1947.

Yeah, in fact, one with a certain A name.

Yes. And Katrina, and Betsy, and 1935 Yankee. Has a lot less to do with coming in under 25N, and more to do with anomalously strong ridging

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022082900, , BEST, 0, 140N, 452W, 30, 1007, DB

[Spacecoast]