ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading
5 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/J5ZsOoh.jpg
not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading
1. it is on the edge. 2. ASCAT will have a hard time resolving such a small circ. happens all the time. 3. the ambiguities are plentiful...
6 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Very good UL divergence, closed circulation looks like it by surface reports and vis satellite, the question is if it has a well defined LLC yet.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
3 likes
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2573
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/J5ZsOoh.jpg
not even close lol
Satellite appearance sometimes can be very misleading
Plenty of 30 kts barbs for 1.5 hour old pass
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
Respectfully disagree with the first note here. It can sure and most of the times it will, but not always.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.
ASCAT shows a wave
1 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:wxman57 wrote:I am not sure that there is anything wrong with the models. This may well be just a wave axis currently, as they had been predicting. Don't be too quick to draw conclusions without any supporting data. ASCAT descending pass clipped Barbados at 13Z. At the rate data is coming in, it could pass the BoC by late this afternoon.
ASCAT shows a wave
If it's a wave then it'll go due west into Mexico in the next 24 hours. So we'll find out soon lol.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
If the models are right and this is actually a pure wave it'll crossover in to the EPAC within the next 18-24 hours. Wouldn't put money on that.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
6 likes
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.
4 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22506
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Data indicate it's a wave. Recon had maintenance issue. Switching to backup plane.
3 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Recon will clear all soon as is now flying.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SouthDadeFish wrote:That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.
To clarify, I'm not saying it's necessarily closed, but I do not believe the abrupt transition from S/SE flow to E flow on the SW edge of the pass.
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
NDG wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SouthDadeFish wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:That ASCAT pass does not look physical on the southern side to me. Would love to see the ambiguities. Also, recon just took off after having maintenance issues. The first fix will be after 18Z but hopefully we get some good obs.
To clarify, I'm not saying it's necessarily closed, but I do not believe the abrupt transition from S/SE flow to E flow on the SW edge of the pass.
here are the Ambiguities.
probably can throw this pass out. luckily recon is on the way.
3 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:NDG wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.
I seriously seriously seriously doubt recon will find anything close to a surface circulation…doubt this develops simply because it will follow the same fate as nearly every other system this season and run our of time over water to reach full potential even if that potential is relatively limited.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
WiscoWx02 wrote:zzh wrote:NDG wrote:
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.
I seriously seriously seriously doubt recon will find anything close to a surface circulation…doubt this develops simply because it will follow the same fate as nearly every other system this season and run our of time over water to reach full potential even if that potential is relatively limited.
What happened the past systems do not dictate the fate of present and future systems.
3 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:NDG wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.
It happed at least a couple of times during the past 2-3 years, can't remember exactly which systems they were. Here is a good read about ASCAT missing closed circulations at times.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/brennan-et-al-wf09.pdf
5 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
zzh wrote:NDG wrote:zzh wrote::uarrow:
1. No matter how small the circulation is ASCAT can resolve it.
2. edge pass affects more on wind speed instead of wind direction. It's all easterlies and you are calling this closed???
In this case this thing is clearly a wave.
There have been plenty of times that ASCAT has missed a small developing closed circulation.
On visible satellite I can clearly see W to E moving low level clouds near the southern coast of the BOC, south of the deep convection.
Since it has happened a lot in the past, please show some examples.
Nana in 2020 comes to mind.
4 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests