ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Recon is on its way:

https://i.imgur.com/jl6TBjr.png

That’s the upper level mission. I don’t know when the next low-level flight is scheduled except for the NHC’s vague “tonight” in their 11am advisory. Decent chance they find a Cat 2 once they arrive.

[tolakram]

Center just now going out of range.

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/Ti1eIoQ.jpg

I see the term "pinhole" being thrown around loosely sometimes (not unlike "annular"), but this is getting there. Didn't think it was possible so close after prolonged land interaction, especially this season when overachieving has not been the name of the game for Atlantic TCs.

[Buck]

Does anyone know how Cycloneye has faired? All of PR still out of power I understand. Also looks like the eastern bands have been relentless on the eastern part of the island.

He's definitely fine, all of my friends in SJ basically said it was a non-event there for the most part, just a lot of rain over there but winds were never real high.

It's a much different story in the interior of the island where it's a fight for your life over there.

Yeah, hard to imagine it hitting SJ hard aside from clogging up the drains and sewers with all that water. That happens with summer thunderstorms, though.

The rest of the island, it's clear that Fiona was a very different event than Maria but very awful still.

[zal0phus]

https://i.imgur.com/Ti1eIoQ.jpg

Looks a lot like Hortense with the top-heavy appearance. The similarities keep piling on

[tolakram]

And there's the eye.

[tolakram]

[Landy]

Best track is up to 85kt/972mb.

AL, 07, 2022091918, , BEST, 0, 196N, 695W, 85, 972, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 0, 20, 1008, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIONA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

Based on data received this morning (and Josh Morgerman measuring 979 mb well outside the eye), I suspect that the intensity at Dominican Republic landfall may be increased. I would estimate it was 85 kt at that point (pressure 974 mb).

[Hurrilurker]

Very impressive presentation for a storm that just scraped a bunch of land and is under not-insignificant shear.

[CrazyC83]

A direct hit on Bermuda could easily be one of their worst storms on record and that is looking quite likely. Given that models show a pressure in the 930s at that point, that could be a solid cat 4 hit. I'm not aware of Bermuda ever being hit directly by a category 4 hurricane.

[us89]

A direct hit on Bermuda could easily be one of their worst storms on record and that is looking quite likely. Given that models show a pressure in the 930s at that point, that could be a solid cat 4 hit. I'm not aware of Bermuda ever being hit directly by a category 4 hurricane.

They've come pretty darn close in recent years. They had a direct hit from Nicole in 2016 and got brushed by Humberto's southern eyewall in 2019, both as cat 3s. Their worst storm in recent memory was cat 3 Fabian in 2003.

[NDG]

And there's the eye.
https://i.imgur.com/Q4K1RPj.gif

Incredible that it looks so great after nearly 12 hrs over land with some high hills.

[bob rulz]

Fiona almost looks better coming off the DR coast than when it made landfall. Remarkable how well the structure held over land.

[aspen]

Does anyone know when the next low-level recon flight is scheduled for, and where I can find the recon schedule for the next few days?

[Stellar]

Sable Island in Canada (44N 60W) will be challenged by this storm. With the bulk of the island at an elevation of 5m or less, it's entirely possible that there could be catastrophic erosion or even complete overwash in many areas.

[KirbyDude25]

Does anyone know when the next low-level recon flight is scheduled for, and where I can find the recon schedule for the next few days?

The next low-level flight just departed and should arrive in about 3 hours. The NHC has the schedule for the next two days on their site under "Aircraft Reconnaissance" in the "Data and Tools" menu at the top of the page, which is usually updated daily. For Fiona, it's 6-hourly fixes for the next couple days

[Kazmit]

If Bermuda gets the eyewall of this thing it could easily be worse than Fabian was in 2003. Just hoping it stays west.

[Landy]

Increasingly photogenic. It really is unfortunate this isn't safely recurving.
Recon has just departed.