ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

From the Antigua NWS.

[USTropics]

There is an elongated circulation at or near the surface that is evident on satellite loops and supported by the recent ASCAT passes (outlined in orange):


The evolution to watch is if 91L can continue to produce convection out in front of the system's current trackable center (as it has so far today). Zooming out, we can begin to see how the environment becomes more trepid in the next few days for 91L. Currently the system is on the SW flank of an upper level high (highlighted in green), which is normally a favorable environment for a developing tropical system. However directly to the NW is the central Atlantic ULL (highlighted in pink), and this will begin to direct flow in the upper-levels, stripping away convection. If the current trackable center can't produce enough convection, dry air entrainment could cause a quick collapse.




As stated earlier, the models showed a period of development today before weakening over the next several days. However, 91L has certainly shown more development today then modeled, and how the system evolves over the next few days will have implications on track points further west.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of
low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing winds to near gale force, but the circulation remains
elongated with an ill-defined center. Although environmental
conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for
significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least,
is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east
and northeast of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1563943511417884675

[SFLcane]

Nhc backpedaling already conditions are just hostile to say the least near term.

[aspen]

Seems like we could get either a Dorian ‘13 or Dorian ‘19 like storm out of this. If the former, then that’s the last nail in the coffin for a near or above-average hurricane season.

[ElectricStorm]

Nhc backpedaling already conditions are just hostile to say the least near term.

What? They just increased 48 hour odds from 30 to 40

[Blown Away]

Nhc backpedaling already conditions are just hostile to say the least near term.

What? They just increased 48 hour odds from 30 to 40

NHC is out 5 days, most models don’t show much above TD/TS through 5, it’s the 5-10 day range some models ramp up.

[chaser1]

Seems like we could get either a Dorian ‘13 or Dorian ‘19 like storm out of this. If the former, then that’s the last nail in the coffin for a near or above-average hurricane season.

I was thinking more like a 2013 Dorian or a weaker "poor-man's" version of a 2005 Katrina. I could see a late cycle 91L finally finding legit atmospheric conditions to allow a sudden spin up on approach to S. Fla. or the Keys, then leading to modest deepening for a Cat. 2/3 to later impact somewhere from the N. Texas coast and points east of there.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track due west for now at 13.9N.

AL, 91, 2022082818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 449W, 30, 1008, DB

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the center of rotation has formed up on the southern end of the circulation now.

Source - GOES-16 Snow/Ice Band to show rotation - https://col.st/jhVBu

[ElectricStorm]

I know a lot of the focus here is on FL (and rightfully so), but I'm getting pretty worried for the Bahamas here. It's only been 3 years since Dorian, they certainly don't need anything else, especially another major...

[blp]

AL, 91, 2022082818, , BEST, 0, 139N, 449W, 30, 1007, DB

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking less impressive. Dmin, increasing shear, and dry air are the culprits.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1563979873802231808




Let's see how well this ages

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563919495592194048

[wxman57]

It has a very good opening to turn northward around 50W. Forward speed should slow considerably over the next 48 hours. The northward jog should allow it to pass safely north of the islands of the NE Caribbean late this week. Bahamas? Florida? East U.S. Coast? Too early to be confident of any long-range track.

[Blown Away]

Nearly all the hurricanes that impact SFL from the E will have to come in S of 25N/70-75W to make it. Nearly all above those marks will miss, 12z ECMWF was N of those marks so recurve away from SFL likely.

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

Nearly all the hurricanes that impact SFL from the E will have to come in S of 25N/70-75W to make it. Nearly all above those marks will miss, 12z ECMWF was N of those marks so recurve away from SFL likely.

Well 12Z ECMWF was actually very similar to the 1947 FLL cane which was the one exception to what you said above.