ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.