NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Deep convection has increased again near and to the west and
southwest of the center of the tropical cyclone. This is likely a
diurnal fluctuation, and the convection is not very well organized.
The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt, which is the average of
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.
The depression has been drifting a little north of west with a
current motion estimate of just 280/2 kt. Georgette is expected to
turn northward or north-northeastward into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge during the next couple of days. Later in the
forecast period, the ridge is likely to build to the north of the
cyclone which should induce a turn toward the west. The official
forecast track is shifted a little eastward from the previous NHC
prediction, toward the latest multi-model consensus guidance.
However, there is a lot of spread in the model tracks, so the
official forecast is of relatively low confidence.
Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and
within a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. These
conditions are expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone
and cause degeneration into a remnant low in the latter part of the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and lies between the latest LGEM and DSHIPS guidance
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 12.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.2N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.8N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 14.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.5N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 15.4N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch