ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Up to 60 mph
HWRF is predicting a Cat 2 on Cancun which seems about right...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Up to 60 mph
003130 1929N 07831W 8431 01563 0101 +159 +066 104063 064 048 002 00
Recon found 64kt FL as well as a large patch of 60kt+ FL winds.
Recon found 64kt FL as well as a large patch of 60kt+ FL winds.
Last edited by Owasso on Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Up to 60 mph
Down to 1001.5mb extrapolated from the higher altitude plane, which has been recording higher pressure values than the lower altitude plane with the 217 kt dropsonde. It might find sub-1000mb pressures on its next pass.
A dropsonde from that lower plane in the NE quadrant found surface winds of 52kt. We could see an upgrade to 55kt at 11pm.
A dropsonde from that lower plane in the NE quadrant found surface winds of 52kt. We could see an upgrade to 55kt at 11pm.
Last edited by aspen on Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Up to 60 mph
1001.5 MB Extrapolated from NOAA3
She's getting stronger from every pass . . .
She's getting stronger from every pass . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Up to 60 mph
Whats interesting is how far out the 50kts SFMR winds are being recorded at on the N side...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think the AF plane is having transmission issues, as normal. The NOAA plane has its 00:43z data on Tropical Tidbits, but the AF plane is still at 00:33z.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Keldeo1997
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:I think the AF plane is having transmission issues, as normal. The NOAA plane has its 00:43z data on Tropical Tidbits, but the AF plane is still at 00:33z.
They don't make those WC-130Js like they used to :/
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Here is the link to the Cuban radar sites if anyone is interested
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES
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HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Thinking it's between 65 and 70mph right now
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Pretty interesting that CAPE hasn't diminished much after sunset.
A good sign WISHE is kicking in from the high OHC water.
Let's see what it looks like in the morning.
A good sign WISHE is kicking in from the high OHC water.
Let's see what it looks like in the morning.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hard to believe models went from something marginal into South Florida / Keys over the weekend to potentially something significant deep into the BoC /Mexico while basically clearing out most of the Florida posters from this thread. We could only imagine how many pages this thread would be racking up if Grace were a Florida or CONUS GOM threat the way Grace is looking this evening 
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Max rain rate at about 75 mm/hr.
Clear sign of intensification, warm core continuing to heat up from latent heat exchange of water vapor condensation.
Clear sign of intensification, warm core continuing to heat up from latent heat exchange of water vapor condensation.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'm thinking a Mexico double hit with a moderate cat 2 at the Yucatan landfall and a cat 3 for the 2nd Mexico landfall.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Pretty interesting that CAPE hasn't diminished much after sunset.
A good sign WISHE is kicking in from the high OHC water.
Let's see what it looks like in the morning.
What is WISHE?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just looked at the latest 250mb forecast.
The Rossby wave looks solidly stretched across the north GoM coast.
If there was a trof in the Rossby Wave, we would have seen a major in the GoM heading for the CONUS.
Hope we wouldn't see such a scenario later in the season.
The Rossby wave looks solidly stretched across the north GoM coast.
If there was a trof in the Rossby Wave, we would have seen a major in the GoM heading for the CONUS.
Hope we wouldn't see such a scenario later in the season.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:GCANE wrote:Pretty interesting that CAPE hasn't diminished much after sunset.
A good sign WISHE is kicking in from the high OHC water.
Let's see what it looks like in the morning.
What is WISHE?
Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange.
The mechanism that pulls heat and moisture out of the water into the air and fuels a TC.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Iceresistance wrote:GCANE wrote:Pretty interesting that CAPE hasn't diminished much after sunset.
A good sign WISHE is kicking in from the high OHC water.
Let's see what it looks like in the morning.
What is WISHE?
Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange.
The mechanism that pulls heat and moisture out of the water into the air and fuels a TC.
Thanks, but when this is kicking in, I'm seeing a strong hurricane tomorrow morning . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NOAA2 1001.1 MB Extrapolated Pass
Communications with AF302 has been restored as of the last update
Managed to get this 1001 MB Drop in the eye
Communications with AF302 has been restored as of the last update
Managed to get this 1001 MB Drop in the eye
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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UTSARoadrunner4
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Good news: We finally have an interesting storm to pay attention too!
Bad news: This will more than likely bring devastation to Cancun, Cozumel, and either Tampico or Veracruz. Probably not to the likes of ‘07 Dean, but it’ll definitely be up there.
Quick question though. What’s the GEPS and should I even pay attention to it?
Bad news: This will more than likely bring devastation to Cancun, Cozumel, and either Tampico or Veracruz. Probably not to the likes of ‘07 Dean, but it’ll definitely be up there.
Quick question though. What’s the GEPS and should I even pay attention to it?
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