ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Holy moly…Elsa is that a central dense overcast?

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j7hGSn/5-F13-C61-E-3-EAE-4913-A93-E-D33472-EF2-F59.gif

HOW ABOUTTT...NO.

Actually that is a cdo.

Central Dense Overcast. Basically a big search of storms surrounding the circulation forming an eye wall.

[NDG]

From 3 hrs ago before convection started expanding.

[Dougiefresh]

Well, that will be of little use to us in Barbados. Recon needs to be in there right now!

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

Is there a site for Barbados Radar?

https://barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Local_Resp.php

Might need to refresh a bit, site is getting a lot of hits.

[typhoonty]

I have yet to see a CDO developing so I’m still guessing it hasn’t stacked yet.

Any attempt of stacking by Elsa for the next 24 hours or so will be relatively futile, it's moving at nearly 30 mph. With that amount of speed shear it will be next to impossible for Elsa's llc to be anything but at the southwestern edge of the convection. That doesn't mean it can't intensify, just that it probably won't do so rapidly for the next day or so. Elsa is doing very well all things considered, most storms I've tracked at this speed just open up.

[eastcoastFL]

SLIDER

proxy visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15164&y=8322&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

floater IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1032&y=610&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

nighttime MP
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=974&y=653.5&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_nighttime_microphysics&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

On the nighttime MP is all that yellow lightning ?

[OuterBanker]

How ironic it would be if Orlando received a hurricane warning from Elsa.

[tolakram]

On the nighttime MP is all that yellow lightning ?

I don't know for sure but I think it's just noise.

[tiger_deF]

Elsa is continuing to fire cyclonically rotating hot towers around the "CDO", the most pink I've seen with Elsa yet. I would wager that Elsa is continuing to intensify, which is surprising given the sheer speed of the system

[eastcoastFL]

We always need more recon, baby. But I think we can see what’s in store for Barbados using satellite and radar for now. Should be ok.

Is there a site for Barbados Radar?

https://barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Local_Resp.php

Might need to refresh a bit, site is getting a lot of hits.

Yah it’s moving pretty slow but good to have. Thank you!

[NDG]

[eastcoastFL]

On the nighttime MP is all that yellow lightning ?

I don't know for sure but I think it's just noise.

Yah I wasn’t sure if it was static. Probably makes more sense than that much lightning

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is, looking at the HWRF, we'll see a big blowup of convection around 55W overnight as the storm reaches warmer waters. Elsa has the structure to take off, the question just is if it can with the dry air and fast forward speed.

My post from a few hours ago. Elsa has followed the HWRF pretty closely the last few hours.

[USTropics]

On the nighttime MP is all that yellow lightning ?

I don't know for sure but I think it's just noise.

Nightime physics RGB essentially is used for quick discrimination of cloud types (typically used to differentiate between actual cloud tops and fog mass). The speckled yellow pixels appear in very cold cloud tops (<-30C).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thing is probably at 50knots now. Wow Elsa.

[Sciencerocks]

nice blow up tonight

[abajan]

Question: If the max winds are 45 kts and it's moving at 25 kts to the west, does that mean they are actually more like 65 kts on the north side of the storm?

To my mind, if the maximum sustained winds (MSW) stated in an NHC advisory for a tropical cyclone (TC) are 50 kt and its forward speed (FS) is 10 kt, the actual MSW are only 40 kt. But that would mean the MSW would increase whenever the FS of the TC accelerates and vice versa, which would be odd. As such, speaking under correction, on the right and left sides of the track the FS should be added to and subtracted from the stated MSW, respectively.

[eastcoastFL]

[DestinHurricane]

told you it would blow up after sunset

Now it is nearly stacked and I don't see much inhibiting it. Outflow is excellent in all quads, no sign of shear in the near future. Gonna be a ride!

[eastcoastFL]

A little bit of dry air out ahead of Elsa but she worked through it pretty well today

[StPeteMike]

Would it tightening up and bringing the blow up of convection from its north side around towards the west and south side cause it to slightly nudge south?