ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wwizard]

Also, I want to mention the Loop Current is not the end-all be-all to rapidly intensify a TC.
Sure, we all remember Katrina.
But I have seen many TCs over the Loop Current and do nothing.
There are a lot of other factors that come into play that intensify or keep a lid on a TC.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/gJGzW1zD/99L1.png [/url]

True. So, what are those factors that we're looking at for Ida? Wind shear looks like it will be low. Nora may or may not be a factor, and if it is I don't think it will be much. Could be wrong, but that's one of the factors. It shouldn't get too disrupted interacting with Cuba, especially if it gets more organized before it gets there. Does it interact with Cuba? Is dry air going to be an issue? So yeah, if just those factors don't go it's way then going over the Loop Current may do nothing. But if all of those factors are favorable, then the Loop Current is pretty much throwing gas on the fire.

What past storms have done means nothing for this one. Every one deals with it's own set of factors.

[Stormgodess]

After seeing Harvey, Micheal, and Laura reach Cat 4+ while not spending all that much time over the gulf, I'm thinking we may see something similar here. I don't really see Ida getting to Cat 5, although I can't really throw out any possibilities at this point. I can definitely see a solid Cat 4 out of this though. Just a nasty and horrible situation overall. Hopefully Cuba somehow disrupts the core more than expected but I just don't see that happening.

What worries me is where her rapid intensification might happen along with the speed she is expeced to move.

Im speaking it total novice terms, but you know how some strong storms once they get to that Cat 4 Cat 5 level after a while will just peter out seemingly for no reason? And so they arent so strong at landfall?

I worry she will only have enough time to become a Monster and hit full force with it

One thing south Louisiana learned is if it packing cat 4/5 winds and dies down before landfall, that storm still got the cat 4/5 storm surge ahead of it... Rita, ike good example ... They both hit miles away from terrebonne parish but we still flooded pretty significantly.

Very true! Stay safe down there.

I just saw this on twitter, this is some seriously bad news for New Orleans if the path remains as it is.

 https://twitter.com/NOLAnews/status/1431074057424887814

[catskillfire51]

I drew a red line where I can see clouds moving west to east that seems in a circulation at the surface.

[MississippiWx]

https://i.imgur.com/eNCrzfp.jpg

I drew a red line where I can see clouds moving west to east that seems in a circulation at the surface.

Yeah, it appears to be riding the northern part of the cone still. Also, the low level center appears much more vigorous than earlier. This is likely why we are seeing thunderstorms erupt near/over it now.

[stormhunter7]

Clearly see a surface low tightning right and a blowup of convection over it. Think things are about to ramp up.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis-swir

[grapealcoholic]

CB rotating NE -> NW
New CB forming SW, dual rotating CBs soon

[StAuggy]

Another tower going up just east of it.
We might get a relocate here.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GhYb4vMV/99L1.png [/url]

https://i.imgur.com/lWe4OFs.jpg

Didn’t Michael consistently relocate upshear as it formed and approached the Yucatán which did lead to a more easterly landfall? Or was that just center relocations because it had many competing vorts and a gyre setup? I can’t remember how it came together

That's close to the last nhc update

[grapealcoholic]

Center should pass just to the northeast of cayman island

[jasons2k]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

[Stormgodess]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Any predictions on strength?

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/eNCrzfp.jpg

I drew a red line where I can see clouds moving west to east that seems in a circulation at the surface.

Yeah, it appears to be riding the northern part of the cone still. Also, the low level center appears much more vigorous than earlier. This is likely why we are seeing thunderstorms erupt near/over it now.

I'm seeing multiple vortices, so I'm not sure exactly is going on, could go anywhere in that cone still.

[grapealcoholic]

925/160 based on what I'm seeing tonight. Near-hurricane by the time it reaches Cuba

[Blinhart]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

LMAO, the point of Louisiana that sticks out the most, it could go over Grand Isle, then go to Vermillion Bay for the next landfall, or go into New Orleans, or go into Mississippi.

[jasons2k]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Any predictions on strength?

I'm afraid this storm is going to find an outflow channel, and have just enough forcing over the top (helpful not hurtful) at landfall that it's going to bomb. God, I hope I am wrong but if I lived in NOLA I would get the heck out now.

[FLpanhandle91]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Pretty much worst case scenario for storm surge in New Orleans if that was to verify.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[ElectricStorm]

From the disco. Ominous wording for a storm that's still a fair ways out

"It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions. Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend."

[Steve]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1377/Jx62YX.gif

I don't expect very much strengthening over the next 24 hours.

Didn't NHC take it to 65 tomorrow night?

[dpep4]

From the disco. Ominous wording for a storm that's still a fair ways out

Panic! at the Disco

[Stormgodess]

I don't usually do this, but I'm feeling a little generous tonight.
I have locked-it in to Grand Isle, La.
Just my own personal analysis.
We'll see.

Any predictions on strength?

I'm afraid this storm is going to find an outflow channel, and have just enough forcing over the top (helpful not hurtful) at landfall that it's going to bomb. God, I hope I am wrong but if I lived in NOLA I would get the heck out now.

Thank you for being honest about it.

I wish some of our local weather guys would quit playing it so safe. I understand they dont want to be wrong, and they dont want to cause panic. But dang panic last minute will be so much worse.

This is one of our local guys in New Orleans saying that members are backing off on intensity from even the cat 2 with fewer members leaning that strong? I just dont get it, and it can be frustrating sometimes. But I still appreciate their thankless work. sorry for ranting, my anxiety is sky high

 https://twitter.com/CJohnFranklin/status/1431068703639093255