ATL: ELSA - Models

[Blinhart]

Are any of the models showing this system going all the way to a wave/depression and following the lower winds further West, which is what I would think would happen if it does fall down that low???

[aspen]

06z HWRF has the position entirely wrong, forecasting Elsa to be nearly a degree north of where it seems to be at this time. It looks to want to turn Elsa north way too soon and quickly.

[Ivanhater]

Just to show how bad the HWRF had been on intensity the last couple of days.

Yesterday's 18Z run had Elsa down to 978mb about this time.




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[blp]

Just to show how bad the HWRF had been on intensity the last couple of days.

Yesterday's 18Z run had Elsa down to 978mb about this time.


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210704/7e3ae62aa2993855783fd35ed5d05a30.jpg

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Yes the HWRF busted but can't blame the models. Elsa center reformation was difficult to forecast. I still think this will ramp up now before getting close to Cuba but defintely HWRF still tends to overhype systems too quickly.

[jlauderdal]

Just to show how bad the HWRF had been on intensity the last couple of days.

Yesterday's 18Z run had Elsa down to 978mb about this time.


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210704/7e3ae62aa2993855783fd35ed5d05a30.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Yes the HWRF busted but can't blame the models. Elsa center reformation was difficult to forecast. I still think this will ramp up now before getting close to Cuba but defintely HWRF still tends to overhype systems too quickly.

We can blame the HWRF for over intensifying this system, it consistently does that...wxman57 and myself warned people days ago about this issue with the model and once again it delivered. Its not always worng but especially when it has no other support your best bet is to discount its intensity completely.

[blp]

Just to show how bad the HWRF had been on intensity the last couple of days.

Yesterday's 18Z run had Elsa down to 978mb about this time.


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210704/7e3ae62aa2993855783fd35ed5d05a30.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Yes the HWRF busted but can't blame the models. Elsa center reformation was difficult to forecast. I still think this will ramp up now before getting close to Cuba but defintely HWRF still tends to overhype systems too quickly.

We can blame the HWRF for over intensifying this system, it consistently does that...wxman57 and myself warned people days ago about this issue with the model and once again it delivered. Its not always worng but especially when it has no other support your best bet is to discount its intensity completely.

I think everybody understands the HWRF bias that has never changed. It does get it right once in a while and if llc would not have opened up last night it would have probably got it right. Evidence for this is the recent ADT estimates which would be inline with what the HWRF was predicting would happen if it kept its original llc.

Highlights the contradiction in what we are seeing...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 JUL 2021 Time : 142020 UTC
Lat : 18:50:52 N Lon : 76:35:08 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 986.3mb/ 65.0kt

[tolakram]

Just to show how bad the HWRF had been on intensity the last couple of days.

Yesterday's 18Z run had Elsa down to 978mb about this time.


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210704/7e3ae62aa2993855783fd35ed5d05a30.jpg

Sent from my LM-G900TM using Tapatalk

Yes the HWRF busted but can't blame the models. Elsa center reformation was difficult to forecast. I still think this will ramp up now before getting close to Cuba but defintely HWRF still tends to overhype systems too quickly.

We can blame the HWRF for over intensifying this system, it consistently does that...wxman57 and myself warned people days ago about this issue with the model and once again it delivered. Its not always worng but especially when it has no other support your best bet is to discount its intensity completely.

Agreed. It's the same story for the Euro, which is really bad at predicting genesis, so in slow years it's awesome. The HWRF tends to blow every storm up past 72 hours or so.

[Cat5James]

HMON has this strengthening over the next few hours… should be interesting to watch in real time

[aspen]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

It never showed Elsa forming, and it became an 85mph hurricane. That is a major bust.

[toad strangler]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

It never showed Elsa forming, and it became an 85mph hurricane. That is a major bust.

And it's track was fubar

[tolakram]

I saved that Euro run from a few days back. How bad was it?

[aspen]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

It never showed Elsa forming, and it became an 85mph hurricane. That is a major bust.

Yes, the Euro busted first. Then the HWRF busted after being pretty good with its intensification and structure where the Euro failed and only showed an open wave.

I’m not saying that the Euro has been any good this year.

[StPeteMike]

Hopefully the models can get their kinks figured out before the heart of the season. Luckily we have satellites and radar to show us how a storm is to perform in the short term…. ignoring Elsa…. but models giving large population areas a good few days of warning of an impending major hurricane is always nice to have and know.

[BYG Jacob]

Hopefully the models can get their kinks figured out before the heart of the season. Luckily we have satellites and radar to show us how a storm is to perform in the short term…. ignoring Elsa…. but models giving large population areas a good few days of warning of an impending major hurricane is always nice to have and know.

Laughs in 2020

[aspen]

Hopefully the models can get their kinks figured out before the heart of the season. Luckily we have satellites and radar to show us how a storm is to perform in the short term…. ignoring Elsa…. but models giving large population areas a good few days of warning of an impending major hurricane is always nice to have and know.

Laughs in 2020

Watch, there’s going to be at least one instance where the models (likely just the GFS) sniff out a big storm over a week in advance, then drop it in the mid-range and send the forum into a frenzy, only to pick it up again mere days before forming and it becomes a major. Delta/Eta/Iota 2.0.

[Ubuntwo]

Euro is far stronger than the GFS now with a mid-grade TS striking Florida and a hurricane moving off the Carolinas.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro animation from 0 to 120 hours, definitely with something more significant than it has been showing all of the sudden:

[hurricane2025]

The Euro has gotten the last laugh with Elsa.

U got that right

[hurricane2025]

Euro is far stronger than the GFS now with a mid-grade TS striking Florida and a hurricane moving off the Carolinas.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310903918788628/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/858799719634829372/861310502940704788/sfcwind_mslp.png?width=875&height=676

That’s weak weak low end tropical storm not mid