CPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, another failed one.

[Kingarabian]

The area near 15N/110W is super tough. Good news for it is that it's moving away from this graveyard.

[Yellow Evan]

The area near 15N/110W is super tough. Good news for it is that it's moving away from this graveyard.

There’s a displaced ULAC basically shearing anything. This shear isn’t really forecast to change much by SHIPS until SSTs drop below 26C. It’s possible there’s enough divergence to fight off the shear in a day or so however.

[hurricanes1234]

Oh boy, another failed one.

Whoops, you beat me to it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

While deep convection continues to pulse near and just south of the
estimated center of Linda, recent satellite imagery suggests the
center is now along the northwestern edge of the cirrus canopy. A
series of microwave passes, first from AMSR-2 at 2036 UTC and then
SSMIS at 2340 UTC indicated that the mid-level eye that was observed
earlier today has become poorly defined. This degradation in
structure could be attributed to dry air being imported into the
inner core of Linda by persistent 15-20 kt of northerly vertical
wind shear. The current intensity this advisory is held at 60 kt,
taking a blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt), though this might be
somewhat generous given that the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
is down to T3.1/47 kt.

Linda appears to be back on a due west heading, though a bit slower
at 270/6 kt. Linda is reaching the western extent of a large
deep-layer ridge located poleward over the western United States,
which is also forecast to become eroded by a mid-tropospheric trough
located just offshore California. Thus, Linda is forecast to start
gaining latitude tomorrow, remaining on a track to the
west-northwest for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains in
good agreement on this forecast evolution, and the latest NHC track
forecast lies close to the HCCA consensus aid. This track forecast
roughly splits the difference between the further south and west
ECMWF and north and east GFS forecast, and is just slightly further
north compared to the previous track forecast.

After intensifying today despite continued moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, Linda appears to be taking a pause as dry air
has been entrained into its inner core, disrupting its convective
structure. Over the next 24-36 hours, this shear is expected to
slowly decrease as diagnosed by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, and should
provide an opportunity for Linda to intensify, especially as the
storm remains in a moist environment and over sea-surface
temperatures above 28 C. However, given the current structure, only
slow intensification is now anticipated over the next 24 hours.
Linda is forecast to peak around 85 kt between 48-72 hours, though
it remains possible the storm could become stronger as suggested in
the latest HWRF and HMON forecasts. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is slightly under the HCCA consensus aid over the first 24
hours, but is now near the peak intensity of this guidance aid.
After 72 hours, gradual weakening is anticipated as Linda begins to
move over cooler ocean waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 13.6N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.0N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.0N 113.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 17.9N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 18.9N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.9N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level
center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense
overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by
moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly
partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently
moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A
pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant
of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of
the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the
initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also
consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt).

After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving
slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days
as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as
the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance
is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track
forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it
closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected
to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night.

The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple
days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly
by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in
a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which
should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest
intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous
cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally
reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly
peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger
HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier
mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend
through the rest of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 121203
TCSENP

A. 12E (LINDA)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 14.3N

D. 107.4W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 6/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. THE 24
HR DEVELOPING TREND RESULTS IN STEADY. MET IS 3.5 AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS
BASED ON PT DUE TO BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

Shouldn’t we be using a CDO pattern?

[aspen]

Linda is quickly forming an eye again. She really wants to become a hurricane it seems, but I personally doubt it’ll get close to the NHC’s peak estimate.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0 based on instantaneous DT.

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 68 73 77 76 75 73 70 73 69 67 64 60 55 49
V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 68 73 77 76 75 73 70 73 69 67 64 60 55 49
V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 64 66 67 67 65 62 60 57 54 52 51 47 42 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 13 12 11 11 8 10 8 5 3 2 9 11 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 3 0 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 3 0
SHEAR DIR 5 345 351 6 33 57 73 63 75 66 54 359 272 193 234 206 202
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.5 22.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 150 148 143 142 129 124 117 112 107 109 103 98 98 84
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 79 78 74 71 66 61 56 54 51 49 45 45 40 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 23 23 21 22 22 22 25 25 25 25 25 22 19
850 MB ENV VOR -35 -27 -11 -11 -15 -15 -11 -9 8 16 21 36 53 57 51 46 45
200 MB DIV 61 80 105 91 56 47 -7 5 -3 26 13 24 -9 -20 -24 6 -11
700-850 TADV -6 -8 -11 -18 -14 0 1 5 4 3 5 2 1 2 4 6 9
LAND (KM) 581 584 606 654 700 678 753 835 964 1135 1287 1427 1541 1680 1807 1930 1957
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.2 111.2 113.4 115.6 117.7 119.8 121.8 123.7 125.5 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 12 14 14 12 11 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 6. 6. 6. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. 13. 9. 7. 4. -0. -5. -11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 23.8% 20.2% 19.3% 11.7% 16.5% 12.0% 6.9%
Logistic: 2.7% 7.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.9% 10.8% 7.9% 7.1% 4.1% 6.1% 4.3% 2.5%
DTOPS: 12.0% 28.0% 19.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Eye overshot by CDO.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
900 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Linda has been trying to form an eye in conventional satellite
imagery during the past few hours, but that feature has been
obscured by the development of new convective bursts near the
center. An AMSR2 microwave pass from 0850 UTC indicated that the
structure remains well organized, if not a little tilted with
height due to shear, and a ragged mid-level eye feature was noted.
Objective intensity estimates are at hurricane strength--T4.4/75 kt
from the UW-CIMSS ADT and 66 kt from SATCON--but subjective CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB remain at 3.5/55 kt. Given the continued
attempts at eye formation, I have elected to lean on the side of the
objective numbers and increase the initial intensity to 65 kt,
making Linda a hurricane.

The AMSR2 pass revealed that Linda has been moving a little to the
right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. Mid-tropospheric
ridging located over northern Mexico should keep Linda on a
west-northwestward track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that
time, another ridge is forecast to slide westward from California
out over the Pacific, which should have a blocking influence on
Linda and cause it to turn back toward the west. In fact, by day 5,
most of the track models are showing a south-of-due-west motion.
On the whole, the guidance is showing a normal amount of spread, and
the NHC track forecast has only been shifted slightly eastward and
northward through day 3 to account for the adjustment of the initial
position. This solution is very close to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.

Moderate northerly to north-northeasterly shear continues to affect
the cyclone, and the effect of this shear was seen in the slight
offset of the low- and mid-level centers in microwave imagery. The
shear is forecast to subside slightly during the next couple of
days while the hurricane moves over warm waters of 28-29 degrees
Celsius and within an environment of upper-level divergence. The
limiting effects of the shear are likely to support gradual
strengthening during the next couple of days, and the NHC intensity
forecast is within the relatively tightly packed guidance suite
during that time. During the 3-5 day period, shear is expected to
decrease substantially, but less conducive thermodynamic conditions
should cause Linda to gradually lose intensity, potentially
weakening to a tropical storm by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 14.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.6N 109.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.7N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.6N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.2N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.4N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.1N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Classic sheared minimal hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 121821
TCSENP

A. 12E (LINDA)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 14.8N

D. 107.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING IN AN EMBEDDED CENTER
DT OF 4.5. THE 24 HR DEVELOPING TREND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET
IS 4.5 AND PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING
CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 72 73 74 78 75 77 77 78 76 74 70 67 62 56
V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 72 73 74 78 75 77 77 78 76 74 70 67 62 56
V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 72 74 71 68 64 60 57 55 54 50 44 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 10 15 11 8 6 6 7 10 10 3 0 4 6 11 8 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -1 2 2 4 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -3 0 3 0
SHEAR DIR 346 355 9 30 61 60 74 33 46 56 47 127 256 228 241 226 233
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.9 24.7 24.7 25.1 24.2 24.1 23.1 22.2
POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 148 144 143 136 128 123 122 109 109 114 104 104 94 84
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1
700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 77 71 69 61 58 55 55 52 50 48 45 41 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 23 23 21 25 23 26 26 28 27 27 27 26 23 20
850 MB ENV VOR -29 -17 -15 -16 -15 -13 -7 -5 12 20 34 51 72 64 52 52 35
200 MB DIV 71 84 85 60 59 16 14 -5 17 -1 29 0 -7 -17 -4 20 6
700-850 TADV -6 -12 -19 -15 -4 0 1 3 2 2 5 2 0 2 6 11 9
LAND (KM) 593 621 668 728 702 710 801 907 1058 1227 1378 1526 1664 1792 1916 1998 1965
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.2 112.4 114.5 116.6 118.7 120.6 122.5 124.4 126.3 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 14 15 13 12 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 5. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 13. 10. 12. 12. 13. 11. 9. 5. 2. -3. -9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.0 108.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 3.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 22.9% 20.0% 19.3% 11.7% 16.4% 11.8% 6.8%
Logistic: 2.0% 6.8% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.2% 10.4% 7.9% 7.1% 4.1% 6.2% 4.3% 2.5%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

The latest Euro runs are keeping this deep somehow over cooler waters in the CPAC.

[Sciencerocks]