ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

Well I mean it will meander over water and because of this it does have time a bit on its side. We’ll see though, I remember how we thought Danny had no chance of forming and then it got its act together at the last second. These systems are very hard to predict honestly

[toad strangler]

If Levi says it has time, it has time. Although highly unrealistic to truly develop.

[wxman57]

My track has it inland south of Daytona Beach tomorrow afternoon as a depression then weakening to a remnant low Sunday night. I think the NHC will upgrade it to a depression. Too much wind shear and dry air for anything more. Rainfall north of the track well under an inch. South of the track, 1-3 inches. No wind, no surge. No one will even realize it passed.

[NDG]

I still just don't see much out of this, at least today, with so much dry shear over it keeping the convection well south of the weak surface low.
BTW, dryer air has now arrived to east central FL, only a 20% chance of rain.

[Blown Away]

I still just don't see much out of this, at least today, with so much dry shear over it keeping the convection well south of the weak surface low.
BTW, dryer air has now arrived to east central FL, only a 20% chance of rain.

https://i.imgur.com/SWt4M8a.gif

There is a very weak LLC there and a TD is looking more likely IMO. For most Floridians it will be no more than a typical summer afternoon showers event.

[Category5Kaiju]

I still just don't see much out of this, at least today, with so much dry shear over it keeping the convection well south of the weak surface low.
BTW, dryer air has now arrived to east central FL, only a 20% chance of rain.

https://i.imgur.com/SWt4M8a.gif

There is a very weak LLC there and a TD is looking more likely IMO. For most Floridians it will be no more than a typical summer afternoon showers event.

To be fair I am honestly more interested to see if it can actually become a TC (or even perhaps become a briefly NS) rather than worry about major impacts as whatever forms will likely not be anything extremely dire.

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 24, 2021:

Location: 29.2°N 77.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 nm

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1418957971460136961

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in association
with the low pressure system located about 200 miles east of Daytona
Beach, Florida. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression
could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts
westward towards the Florida Peninsula. Interests in Florida should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the
system further.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Beven

[Category5Kaiju]

Just a thought, but I wonder if assuming 90L does enter the gulf whether conditions there may be better than what they are now off the East Florida coast

[tolakram]

Somehow the Storm2K map still hasn't updated to show 90L as yet. Hmm

https://i.imgur.com/sEcSz7O.jpg

It's a bug without a fix for any 90L. If/when it becomes a TD it will show up.

[AlphaToOmega]

Wind speeds are increasing.

Invest 90L
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 24, 2021:

Location: 29.0°N 77.4°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 nm

[Category5Kaiju]

Here's the way I see it; if we can get a 2019 Barry, then while 90L may be a dried out and sheared mess, if it does manage to take advantage of every little pro-development variable at its disposal and manages to form a LLC, then it by definition would be a tropical depression or storm.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That ULL to its south east is killing this thing

[Jr0d]

Recon has found 35kt flight winds, SFMR is down on this flight so no surface estimate for winds.

I suppose it can be classified as a depression...

[Sciencerocks]

It has the wind
It has the LLC(as confirmed over the past day by ascat
I'd say I'd agree with the person above. It's NOT pretty!

[Kingarabian]

The NHC will probably want the convection to build over that exposed center for an 'X' amount of time.

[Jr0d]

SFMR is back online but missed the stormy part of the system.

Even though there is no conventional around the low, it is still a closed low. The associated convection to the east of the center has at least depression winds, and it is close to the coast....I am a bit surprised there is no upgrade a 5pm...

While this likely will not do.much, just a flare up of convection could make this a tropical storm...and in my amateur opinion this will happen when it crosses the gulf stream. Even though a minimal tropical storm can be less intense than an afternoon thunderstorm, it still may bring storm conditions tomorrow night and Monday to Florida's east coast....so again I am a bit puzzled by no upgrade hence no watches.