ATL: ELSA - Models

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#81 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:58 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif


I sure do hope intensity is way off for this. It needs to be much weaker or things are going to get rough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#82 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:59 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif

It's faster as well.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#83 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:59 am

SFLcane wrote:12z GFS is bombing this into a hurricane before the islands. :eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmvjGVkF/gfs-jpeg.gif


In line with HWRF (which had 981 mbar at this time stamp) and a clear intensifying trend regarding GFS the last few runs. Here below is an overview Elsa's state at 06z on Friday in the last few GFS runs. The 18z forecast from yesterday 'only' had it at 1000 mbar by Friday and since then it has steadily been getting stronger each run and now the 12z run has a 983 mbar storm on Friday.

12z, June 30: 983 mbar
06z, June 30: 991 mbar
00z, June 30: 994 mbar
18z, June 29: 1000 mbar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#84 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:03 am

12z GFS landfalls in the southern tip of Haiti @90 hours, 981 mbar in the previous frame.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#85 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:05 am

kevin wrote:12z GFS landfalls in the southern tip of Haiti @90 hours, 981 mbar in the previous frame.


Looks like it may avoid SE Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#86 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:06 am

GFS landfalls in Haiti, weakens from land interaction and then intensifies slightly.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#87 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:08 am

GFS @108 hrs appears ridge breaking and NW turn beginning??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#88 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:08 am

Gfs crosses western Cuba before restrengthening in the eastern gulf and hitting the big bend area around 975mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#89 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:10 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Gfs crosses western Cuba before restrengthening in the eastern gulf and hitting the big bend area around 975mb


Seems almost identical to the previous run. It will be interesting if the Euro finally decides to develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#90 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:11 am

Looks like land interaction with Cuba is helping Elsa to recover, from 1001 mbar to 994 mbar (108 - 124 hours) while grazing the southern coast of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#91 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:18 am

Um... :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#92 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:20 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#93 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:20 am

12z GFS... Modest Cat 1 very close to Key West landafall @150 hrs... Cat 2 nearing landfall @Sarasota @162 hrs... 12z is a bit NE and faster than 06z near Florida...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#94 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:21 am



Directly into Tampa if this verifies :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#95 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:24 am

Florida on the nasty side.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#96 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:27 am

SFLcane wrote:Florida on the nasty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmpC605p/gfs1111.png


Not good after what happened in Miami
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#97 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:28 am

SFLcane wrote:Florida on the nasty side.

https://i.postimg.cc/rmpC605p/gfs1111.png


Clearly the only limiting factor keeping 97L from bombing is land interaction, per the models... Amazing it appears some of the models see supportive upper air & SST’s given its June/July in Caribbean...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#98 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:32 am

12z GFS... (2) CONUS landfalls, almost (3), as Cat 1-2... Key West (almost), @Sarasota (SW FL), cross over FL into Atlantic and in to South Carolina...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#99 Postby kevin » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:32 am

And of course afterwards it grazes multiple states along the East Coast because why not :eek: . What a crazy 12z run by GFS, let's hope reality won't be this bad.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#100 Postby Senobia » Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:48 am

What's in the steering pattern that the models are seeing right now that takes 97 so sharply N and E into FL?
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