EPAC: ENRIQUE - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a tight core to me. Should see some high resolution MW passes in the next 3 hours.

[Sciencerocks]

Nice cdo so I'd go 55 knots. This is also based on the microwave.

[Kingarabian]

This is a beautiful system, classic EPAC look. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it changed its overall appearance from something promising to something ragged and lopsided, since every single 2021 system has done that.

[Kingarabian]

Nice cdo so I'd go 55 knots. This is also based on the microwave.
[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2673/ltFrxC.gif[url]

Yeah CDO is right on top of the LLC.

2021JUN25 200000 3.8 991.2 61.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -72.16 -71.81 UNIFRM N/A -2.5 15.86 103.19 FCST GOES16 37.2

[Yellow Evan]

Hard to justify more than 45 due to the earlier ASCAT pass.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Cabo Corrientes
northward to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
*Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Cabo Corrientes to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest
expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of
Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Enrique is likely to become a
hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at http://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5. ... y_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite
imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent
banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon,
a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed
over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense
overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to
assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer
wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt
winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval
of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt,
while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45
kt.

Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of
the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The
track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with
a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead
to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in
its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to
the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the
cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while
becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance
consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to
intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a
favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level
humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest
SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt
wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its
climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just
below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours.
After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler
upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to
begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a
little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance
of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[aspen]

This is a beautiful system, classic EPAC look. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it changed its overall appearance from something promising to something ragged and lopsided, since every single 2021 system has done that.
https://i.imgur.com/3vnJmEU.png
https://i.imgur.com/4bDZpbR.png

It would be kind of funny if this suddenly fails to become a hurricane, and a hurricane forms in the Atlantic before the EPac has the chance to generate another one.

[ElectricStorm]

This is a beautiful system, classic EPAC look. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it changed its overall appearance from something promising to something ragged and lopsided, since every single 2021 system has done that.
https://i.imgur.com/3vnJmEU.png
https://i.imgur.com/4bDZpbR.png

It would be kind of funny if this suddenly fails to become a hurricane, and a hurricane forms in the Atlantic before the EPac has the chance to generate another one.

Yeah but unless this thing goes full on Cristina, I don't really see this not becoming a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Hard to justify more than 45 due to the earlier ASCAT pass.

There it is.

The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45
kt.

[Kingarabian]

Can even see the eyewall building on visible satellite imagery.

[Kingarabian]

Because this is not a sheared, dry air infested, ragged sloppy mess, microwave passes have begun to miss the center of the system:

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Because this is not a sheared, dry air infested, ragged sloppy mess, microwave passes have begun to miss the center of the system:
https://i.imgur.com/U7PsN4c.png

If there was reliable microwave/ASCAT passes in any basin I'd be amazed. It's absolutely confirmation bias, but I feel like they always miss at the most crucial times.

[zeehag]

enrique is beginning to look gorgeous.. that is a scary thing to those of us in boats in west mexico locales... i like these when they remain fishies and donot mess with us barely if at all on land. as with dolores we still need rainfall but not the mayhem
my momma lives in goodyear so each time we get a formation she asks if they will FINALLY get some RAIN.. trust me i try my best to send these to aridzona, is just momma nature wants you to dry out more for some reason

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AnthonyMweather/status/1408547166491189255

[Kingarabian]

2021JUN25 213000 4.0 988.6 65.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -67.16 -70.38 UNIFRM N/A -2.5 15.92 103.36 FCST GOES16 37.4

[USTropics]

Impressive display of hot towers over the past 30 minutes, this definitely is on its way. Once this most recent hot tower rotates around the western axis, I'd expect Enrique to reach hurricane intensity:

[Kingarabian]

0/2 so far. GMI pass:

[aspen]

0/2 so far. GMI pass:
https://i.imgur.com/HiSxJZH.png

What a joke, except an actual joke would have a punchline.

[Kingarabian]

0/3, SSMIS F-16 pass. I guess the satellites are following the same line today.

[Kingarabian]

ADT:

2021JUN25 223000 4.1 987.0 67.4 4.1 4.1 4.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -73.16 -69.87 UNIFRM N/A -2.5 15.96 103.47 FCST GOES16 37.6