EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#81 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:46 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Classifiable at this point as long as it can sustain itself.


Take that back. Still not convinced this has a well defined center.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#82 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:51 pm

:uarrow: If recon was in it they probably would find one. It's a pretty small system being hit with shear. So a true consistent LLC is going to be tough to see on satellite imagery or ASCAT. No problem sustaining deep convection for the past 36 hours.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#83 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:55 pm

TXPZ21 KNES 070044
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 13.2N

D. 108.8W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL LOOSELY-DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A LLCC LESS THAN 1.25 DEG FROM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN
A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LLCC NOT CLR-CUT
AND PSBL MULTIPLE LLCC.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/2048Z 12.9N 108.7E AMSR2


...KONON


EP, 92, 2021060700, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1095W, 30, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#84 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:47 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#85 Postby JW-_- » Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:12 pm

The center looks a tad elongated but there is one recognizable on the sat pic.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#86 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:38 pm

Hour old GMI pass:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#87 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:22 am

Looks like a Tropical Depression to me but it looks like time is running out for this system to get upgraded.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#88 Postby JW-_- » Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:26 am

Image

Image

Think maybe now the ship has sailed. Back @ 00z tho, it did likely meet the classification requirements wind-wise.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#89 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 07, 2021 2:07 am

90/90 and no classification. What was this phenomenon if it was never a TC at any point?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#90 Postby JW-_- » Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:00 am

Image

The fluid model showed the vortex quite well. Not uncommon for the vortex to relocate as it
was doing @ times inside a td. Taking the maximum wind field into account on the earlier micro wind image I agree with you guys who were in favor. :ggreen:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#91 Postby JW-_- » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:16 am

Image

Comparision @ 55kmh with 1007mb

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#92 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:12 am

Down to 60%.

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Socorro
Island. However, the system still lacks a well-defined center, as
recent satellite imagery indicates the low-level circulation remains
broad and displaced well east of the thunderstorm activity. The
disturbance still has the potential to become a short-lived tropical
depression today before environmental conditions become less
favorable for development by tonight. The system is forecast to
move slowly west-southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#93 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:30 am

I thought this for sure was going to be classified at some point but it doesn't look like it
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#94 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:14 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#95 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:20 pm

Bye.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become less organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 700
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
unfavorable, and development of this system is now unlikely. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#97 Postby JW-_- » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:90/90 and no classification. What was this phenomenon if it was never a TC at any point?


Small weakish monsoon depression.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#98 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:57 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#99 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:06 am

It's dead but did seem to be a depression at one point
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#100 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:52 am

A broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity well west of its center.
Significant development of this system is not expected due to strong
upper-level winds and dry air in the surrounding environment. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward during the
next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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