ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Wow, this from the NOAA mission of the 6th. The big eye is fantastic.

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1435251755349168135

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's going to be weakening from here on out. Would have been nice for it to hit Cat 4 and get a few more ACE but at the end of the day it's hard to argue against a long tracking major annular cane in the Atlantic. Just a couple ERC's too many for it to reach it's full potential.

Solid storm overall, now hopefully it doesn't impact Bermuda and Canada.

[Cyclenall]

If anyone wants a good chuckle at just how fast Larry is degrading, view the AVN:

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Pressure is still in the mid-960s according to recon. Also, the exact LLC is offset from where the eye is on visible/IR imagery, and the wind field remains very lopsided. FL have gone down a tad, supporting the slight downgrade to 95 kt.

[Hurricaneman]

Southerly shear as the mid level eye is offset to the north side of the surface eye

[Kingarabian]

Unfortunately for Larry it failed to meet my expectations given the favorable OHC and favorable upper level environment. Had Isabel type expectations for it. But nope, in the end it was never ending ERC's.

Felicia and Linda were more impressive as annular hurricanes given the less than ideal environments they had.

[aspen]

Unfortunately for Larry it failed to meet my expectations given the favorable OHC and favorable upper level environment. Had Isabel type expectations for it. But nope, in the end it was never ending ERC's.

Felicia and Linda were more impressive as annular hurricanes given the less than ideal environments they had.

Hopefully the next OTS major won’t try to match or out-do Larry’s tendency for EWRCs, and we’ll get a nice, consistent, and easy to forecast Long tracking Cat 4.

[sikkar]

Appears to be slightly improving on IR, may be taking advantage of warmer water.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[Chris90]

Unfortunately for Larry it failed to meet my expectations given the favorable OHC and favorable upper level environment. Had Isabel type expectations for it. But nope, in the end it was never ending ERC's.

Felicia and Linda were more impressive as annular hurricanes given the less than ideal environments they had.

Hopefully the next OTS major won’t try to match or out-do Larry’s tendency for EWRCs, and we’ll get a nice, consistent, and easy to forecast Long tracking Cat 4.

I think part of the reason why Felicia and Linda were more impressive annular hurricanes was because they had less ideal environments, that’s partly what annulars require. I think part of Larry’s problem was the environment was good enough that it supported the formation of a secondary band that could become the new eyewall, but I think if the environment was drier it could have cut off external bands and allowed Larry to more consistently maintain his annular structure. I think Larry would have done better without the annular structure and a core that was smaller and easier to contract so that way when an ERC started it could squeeze out as much intensification as possible with the inner core before the outer eyewall took over. Larry kind of wanted to sit on the fence and have an annular structure but also do ERCs, but he couldn’t have it both ways.

I do think Larry will make for some fascinating research papers on his annular structure but also perpetual ERCs. He was consistently acting out of character for an annular hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

Unfortunately for Larry it failed to meet my expectations given the favorable OHC and favorable upper level environment. Had Isabel type expectations for it. But nope, in the end it was never ending ERC's.

Felicia and Linda were more impressive as annular hurricanes given the less than ideal environments they had.

Hopefully the next OTS major won’t try to match or out-do Larry’s tendency for EWRCs, and we’ll get a nice, consistent, and easy to forecast Long tracking Cat 4.

I think part of the reason why Felicia and Linda were more impressive annular hurricanes was because they had less ideal environments, that’s partly what annulars require. I think part of Larry’s problem was the environment was good enough that it supported the formation of a secondary band that could become the new eyewall, but I think if the environment was drier it could have cut off external bands and allowed Larry to more consistently maintain his annular structure. I think Larry would have done better without the annular structure and a core that was smaller and easier to contract so that way when an ERC started it could squeeze out as much intensification as possible with the inner core before the outer eyewall took over. Larry kind of wanted to sit on the fence and have an annular structure but also do ERCs, but he couldn’t have it both ways.

I do think Larry will make for some fascinating research papers on his annular structure but also perpetual ERCs. He was consistently acting out of character for an annular hurricane.

I must be the only one who thinks the environment wasn’t all that ideal. You don’t see a nearly cat4 hurricane have its mid level eye shifted so dramatically off of its surface eye very often.

[wxman57]

Recon indicates Larry is a Cat 2 with around 100 mph winds - similar to yesterday's recon. No evidence of 115 mph. Looks quite ragged now compared to a couple days ago. Without the heavier squalls in the eyewall, those FL winds are not making it down to the surface.

[Sciencerocks]

[TheDreamTraveler]

Unfortunately for Larry it failed to meet my expectations given the favorable OHC and favorable upper level environment. Had Isabel type expectations for it. But nope, in the end it was never ending ERC's.

Felicia and Linda were more impressive as annular hurricanes given the less than ideal environments they had.

Hopefully the next OTS major won’t try to match or out-do Larry’s tendency for EWRCs, and we’ll get a nice, consistent, and easy to forecast Long tracking Cat 4.

I think part of the reason why Felicia and Linda were more impressive annular hurricanes was because they had less ideal environments, that’s partly what annulars require. I think part of Larry’s problem was the environment was good enough that it supported the formation of a secondary band that could become the new eyewall, but I think if the environment was drier it could have cut off external bands and allowed Larry to more consistently maintain his annular structure. I think Larry would have done better without the annular structure and a core that was smaller and easier to contract so that way when an ERC started it could squeeze out as much intensification as possible with the inner core before the outer eyewall took over. Larry kind of wanted to sit on the fence and have an annular structure but also do ERCs, but he couldn’t have it both ways.

I do think Larry will make for some fascinating research papers on his annular structure but also perpetual ERCs. He was consistently acting out of character for an annular hurricane.

That's the thing about annular hurricanes, we're still learning more about them since they're so rare. It wasn't until the early 2000s that annular canes were fully recognized as their own thing. I feel we still have more to learn about them

[TheDreamTraveler]

But yeah it looks likely now that Larry will impact Newfoundland. Just wondering how well it holds itself together when it gets there

[abajan]

As expected, Larry is getting bigger. Its tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 240 miles.

[Ubuntwo]

Current recon data hardly supports 80kt let alone 95kt.