ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

HD sunset shot

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

It's absolutely amazing how similar this is to Isabel. Sameish area, same time of year...annular...pinwheel eye...similar strength too

Not quite strong as Isabel and not as symmetric either. We are talking about a CAT3 vs CAT5 despite both being annular

Also for some reason seems insistent on going through ERC’s despite its annular structure.

[aspen]

Larry is up to 18.9 ACE as of the 5pm advisory. It’ll likely hit 20 ACE at the 11pm advisory, and since it’s forecast to be a major for the next 60-72 hours, it’ll probably be at least 30 ACE by Friday morning.

[AnnularCane]

It's absolutely amazing how similar this is to Isabel. Sameish area, same time of year...annular...pinwheel eye...similar strength too

Not quite strong as Isabel and not as symmetric either. We are talking about a CAT3 vs CAT5 despite both being annular

Also for some reason seems insistent on going through ERC’s despite its annular structure.

They all have their own little "quirks," if you want to call it that.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hurricane Larry really loves EWRC

[aspen]

Yesterday’s EWRC finished up pretty quickly and the eye contracted quickly as well. All of Larry’s EWRC have been fast and seamless. Since shear remains low for the next 48 hours or so, this cycle could also be successful, although dry air still lurks around and could get entrained in the core during this very vulnerable stage.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET peaks this near 920mb/118kts in about 48 hours.

[supercane4867]

Inner eyewall has started to erode

[aspen]

A higher OHC pocket is coming up in 12-18hrs, right in time for the EWRC to finish up and recon to arrive.


The outer eyewall is barely bigger than the old one, so this should be another quick cycle.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Newfoundland is still at risk of a landfall. It's in almost half of NHC's cone. Definitely pay attention if you're there.

Model thread has been dead for 2 or 3 days so I feel this was important to say since there are a few posters who live there and possibly people viewing the forums as well

[Sciencerocks]

[SconnieCane]

Newfoundland is still at risk of a landfall. It's in almost half of NHC's cone. Definitely pay attention if you're there.

Model thread has been dead for 2 or 3 days so I feel this was important to say since there are a few posters who live there and possibly people viewing the forums as well

AFAIK, storms are typically weakening/undergoing ET by the time they get to Atlantic Canada, correct? Post-tropical Dorian received some baroclinic enhancement and was pretty rough in Nova Scotia, although not catastrophically so. Last year's Teddy wasn't nearly as bad as feared. Seems in recent decades only Igor was really bad there.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Newfoundland is still at risk of a landfall. It's in almost half of NHC's cone. Definitely pay attention if you're there.

Model thread has been dead for 2 or 3 days so I feel this was important to say since there are a few posters who live there and possibly people viewing the forums as well

AFAIK, storms are typically weakening/undergoing ET by the time they get to Atlantic Canada, correct? Post-tropical Dorian received some baroclinic enhancement and was pretty rough in Nova Scotia, although not catastrophically so. Last year's Teddy wasn't nearly as bad as feared. Seems in recent decades only Igor was really bad there.

I'm not sure when extra tropical transition will happen but before newfoundland it shows it as a 105mph hurricane and after newfoundland shows it post tropical at 80mph

I took a look at Igor and it's definitely a beast of its own because it had such a huge windfield as a hurricane but it had 87mph max winds when it hit Newfoundland. Larry is supposed to come out of NF with 80mph sustained winds still. Obviously that's if it takes the west side of the path

[aspen]

This EWRC is going very poorly. Larry might not be able to recover this time.

[Iceresistance]

Larry does not look good right now . . .

[aspen]

Pressure is up to the low 960s, and the wind field is very lopsided — Cat 1 winds in the SW quadrant and winds supporting 95-100 kt in the NE quad.

[SouthernBreeze]

NHC nailed it again! They said last night was to be start of Larry's decline

[SconnieCane]

NHC nailed it again! They said last night was to be start of Larry's decline

...and here I thought the UKMET might be on to something with those Cat. 5 pressures near Bermuda. Turns out I needed to eliminate the word "to."

[PavelGaborik]

Newfoundland is still at risk of a landfall. It's in almost half of NHC's cone. Definitely pay attention if you're there.

Model thread has been dead for 2 or 3 days so I feel this was important to say since there are a few posters who live there and possibly people viewing the forums as well

AFAIK, storms are typically weakening/undergoing ET by the time they get to Atlantic Canada, correct? Post-tropical Dorian received some baroclinic enhancement and was pretty rough in Nova Scotia, although not catastrophically so. Last year's Teddy wasn't nearly as bad as feared. Seems in recent decades only Igor was really bad there.

The remnants of Matthew merged with a low pressure system and caused very significant damage in Eastern Cape Breton in 2016.