ATL: GRACE - Models

[karenfromheaven]

06Z Experimental runs:

[Senobia]

NHC shifted their track further South and West this afternoon, although I'm not sure which model they based it on.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON has a pretty realistic solution imo. Stays south of Hispanola and Cuba and goes across the Yucatan making landfall in Mexico as a strong TS.

[IcyTundra]

NHC shifted their track further South and West this afternoon, although I'm not sure which model they based it on.

All models are trending south and west. Likely due to the center of Grace possibly reforming further south and a stronger ridge over the North Gulf.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[aspen]

The 18z runs so far seem to be aiming at the Yucatán Mexico/Belize by the 84-96 hour range, with the possibility for strengthening in the BoC — very similar to Earl ‘16 and Franklin ‘17.

[SoupBone]

The 18z runs so far seem to be aiming at the Yucatán Mexico/Belize by the 84-96 hour range, with the possibility for strengthening in the BoC — very similar to Earl ‘16 and Franklin ‘17.

It straight up buries it into southern Mexico. That ridge is supper potent. I hate the heat, but if it protects us from these systems, bring it on.

[aspen]

18z HWRF is further south and wants to douse Haiti. Unfortunately, this scenario looks closer to reality.

[IcyTundra]

HWRF goes over southern portion of Hispanola but is back over water south of Cuba intensifying.

[aspen]

Oh boy, the HWRF sends Grace into the rocket fuel that is the WCar.

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF has a weak Hurricane at 72 hours heading for the Yucatan Channel. Also has pinhole so this run could get crazy.

[lsuhurricane]

You almost have to admire the HWRF. It’s stubborn and undeterred on Grace becoming a hurricane. Like a backup cheering on its model teammates.

[Keldeo1997]

I wonder what's preventing strengthening here? The shear is not that strong.

[SoupBone]

You almost have to admire the HWRF. It’s stubborn and undeterred on Grace becoming a hurricane. Like a backup cheering on its model teammates.

It's what it does, year in and year out. It could take a water puddle in your yard and turn it into Super Typhoon Tip.

[PTrackerLA]

You almost have to admire the HWRF. It’s stubborn and undeterred on Grace becoming a hurricane. Like a backup cheering on its model teammates.

You gotta admire the HWRF's constant positivity when strengthening any storm . In just 12 hours HWRF shifted from south Florida to Cancun for it's mainland landfall .

[toad strangler]

You almost have to admire the HWRF. It’s stubborn and undeterred on Grace becoming a hurricane. Like a backup cheering on its model teammates.

You gotta admire the HWRF's constant positivity when strengthening any storm . In just 12 hours HWRF shifted from south Florida to Cancun for it's mainland landfall .

Panama Canal next?

[hurricane2025]

Prob will have good grasp wed/Thursday

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF is a copy/paste of Gilbert except much weaker.

[aspen]

Ignoring the ridiculous intensity in the Gulf, this HWRF run has a reasonable evolution for Grace based on its current location and trajectory:
1.) it makes landfall in DR and has a center relocation
2.) despite now being south of Cuba, it has a hard time strengthening much (it does get to hurricane intensity but looks to be limited by shear)
3.) it either makes landfall over or passes near the Yucatán Peninsula
4.) it’s able to take advantage of better conditions in the Gulf/BoC and intensify