ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

Huh? Maybe in IR but Visible looks just about what an intensifying storm should look like.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

What does this mean for Barbados

[eastcoastFL]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

What’s funny is this how HWRF IR satellite predication had it about now. It looked like a broken up mess before it really starts to wrap later today and this evening.

[tailgater]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1410574825052069894

Wait what, weaker storm more to the Nw while stronger one more west, I didn’t see that coming

[HurricaneEnzo]

If anything seems to be getting better organized to me. Convection working its way over the center. Not really expecting any RI but probably some slow strengthening.

[aspen]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

Huh? Maybe in IR but Visible looks just about what an intensifying storm should look like.

IR imagery for most storms under like Category 2 intensity looks much worse than their visible satellite imagery. Case in point: Dorian starting RI into a major north of the Greater Antilles. It looked awful on IR despite actually intensifying quite a lot.

Yeah, Elsa did look better earlier, but it has improved from when the circulation was more exposed. Convection is trying to cover up and pull in the LLC.

[SFLcane]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

Huh? Maybe in IR but Visible looks just about what an intensifying storm should look like.

IR imagery for most storms under like Category 2 intensity looks much worse than their visible satellite imagery. Case in point: Dorian starting RI into a major north of the Greater Antilles. It looked awful on IR despite actually intensifying quite a lot.

Yeah, Elsa did look better earlier, but it has improved from when the circulation was more exposed. Convection is trying to cover up and pull in the LLC.

Just still trying to rap my head around how fast this is moving. No way it can intensify further going that fast

[Aric Dunn]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

What’s funny is this how HWRF IR satellite predication had it about now. It looked like a broken up mess before it really starts to wrap later today and this evening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_3.png

Yep, so far the HWRF has been pretty spot on.

[DestinHurricane]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

Huh? Maybe in IR but Visible looks just about what an intensifying storm should look like.

IR imagery for most storms under like Category 2 intensity looks much worse than their visible satellite imagery. Case in point: Dorian starting RI into a major north of the Greater Antilles. It looked awful on IR despite actually intensifying quite a lot.

Yeah, Elsa did look better earlier, but it has improved from when the circulation was more exposed. Convection is trying to cover up and pull in the LLC.

Exactly. At this stage, you hardly should be looking at IR when there's visible available. Visible will tell you much more about a storm than IR. If we're talking a major hurricane, that's a different story but clearly this is not to that point yet, and may not ever be.

[presidentofyes12]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

What’s funny is this how HWRF IR satellite predication had it about now. It looked like a broken up mess before it really starts to wrap later today and this evening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_3.png

Looks... very accurate, scarily accurate

[Kazmit]

Looks horrible satellite appearance has really degraded. Insane it’s Rocketing at 30 mph

What’s funny is this how HWRF IR satellite predication had it about now. It looked like a broken up mess before it really starts to wrap later today and this evening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_3.png

Looks... very accurate, scarily accurate

I remember HWRF being super accurate last season a lot of the time, like with Laura and Eta.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What’s funny is this how HWRF IR satellite predication had it about now. It looked like a broken up mess before it really starts to wrap later today and this evening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2021070106/hwrf_satIR_05L_3.png

Looks... very accurate, scarily accurate

I remember HWRF being super accurate last season a lot of the time, like with Laura and Eta.

Sally too. It nailed that last second intensification.

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

https://imgur.com/X9iPMbt

LLC is running away from the MLC again.

[NDG]

Seems to me like still a broad closed surface circulation over all with perhaps LL vortices rotating around it.

[AutoPenalti]

Seems to me like still a broad closed surface circulation over all with perhaps LL vortices rotating around it.

https://i.imgur.com/68LlOsH.gif

It's easier to pinpoint it though, LLC is just barely under that convection.

[cycloneye]

For those interested on recon, go to the ELSA Recon thread to see a lot on todays TCPOD.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks pretty disorganized to me. Low-level vortex is elongated W-E with convectively-generated mesovortices rotating around the eastern and northern sides. Until convection can wrap around the northern side of this, or the center reforms, I think it will struggle.

[NDG]

Another look zoomed out, longer loop. It definitely has a closed circulation centered just west of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is quite clear and quite well defined. it has popped out from the convection..

BUT.. it is moving WSW. Likely a small organizational cyclonic loop..

Should be interesting to see what happens when it rotates back SE into the convection..