ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ThetaE]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/3981/se4sJF.gif

Cirrus outflow suggests that shear has weakened a lot, and it's shown in the improvements Larry's made today. I suspect when the NOAA plane arrives that Larry will have a deeper pressure than 956 mb but 100-105 kt winds. I think it's pretty hard to judge how typical rules of thumb hold up to a large annular storm like Larry, especially since these storms are so rare in the Atlantic.

Then again, the NHC is scarily good at intensity estimates of storms in the open ocean when recon is eventually deployed (I remember being surprised by how close they were with Teddy last year).

The NHC is the best tropical cyclone forecasting agency in the world

...Yes. I was praising their track record of pinpointing intensity on limited data.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm interested to see what recon finds. We don't get recon into annular hurricanes very often.

[grapealcoholic]

Recon should find at least 110 kt

[sikkar]

Taking a west jog the past hours.

[Meteophile]

Well i took a cloud feature in the lower part of the eyewall and followed it on the mesoscale imagery. It looks like it has made more than 1 latitude degree of travel length in less than 30 minutes.

So more than 220km/h. It seemed to spin fast down there.

[Michele B]

Taking a west jog the past hours.

Why is there no discussion on which direction Larry will take?

Is he stationary?

[aspen]

I’m going to guess 958-966mb and 90-100 kt. It’s possible Larry is weaker than Dvorak and other satellite estimates suggest due to its expansive wind field.

[grapealcoholic]

I’m going to guess 958-966mb and 90-100 kt. It’s possible Larry is weaker than Dvorak and other satellite estimates suggest due to its expansive wind field.

ADT accounts for RMW though

[sikkar]

Taking a west jog the past hours.

Why is there no discussion on which direction Larry will take?

Is he stationary?

According to the NHC, there are no important track changes, so it may be just a wobble?

[Stormybajan]

Im thinking 954 mb and 110-115 mph, with such a large eye its hard to get extremely strong winds within a tropical system. Dont see this one getting to cat 4 status but it could push back up to 125 mph if things go perfect for it

[cycloneye]

Winds increasing as plane approaches from the SW side.

[ThetaE]

Recon plane is getting close now. They cruised over at a relatively low 525mb, so they're already picking up on the large cyclonic circulation as they approach the CDO.

[supercane4867]

Sweet eye candy

[ElectricStorm]

Guessing recon finds 95-100kts max for now, maybe even closer to 85-95kts, with all the ERC's and a huge eye it's going to take awhile for those winds to mix down. I could see Larry hitting minimal Cat 4 in the next few days once those winds mix down though.

Either way this storm is awesome and the huge eye is insane

[Woofde]

Hopefully recon takes some good video from inside. Annular hurricanes are a rare treat for the atlantic, especially to get recon into.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to guess a considerably lower pressure - around 942 mb - but winds near or slightly below the advisory.

[toad strangler]

Larry's eye looks as large or larger than WIlma's when crossing FL.

[cycloneye]

Here we go! From south to north the pernetration.

[Visioen]

The eye is literally almost as big as my country (Belgium)

[Kohlecane]

The eye is literally almost as big as my country (Belgium)

Could literally go over the entire state of RI