ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

"Forecaster Papin"? Did Philippe get a position at the NHC?? Or is this just some kind of cosmic coincidence?

He indeed works there. According to this info he's one of their hurricane specialists. Here's his bio.

[JRD]

Invest 95L has developed a tight cyclonic circulation both in the surface and aloft. It can't be classified as a TD because of a relative lack of convection, and that present isn't completely wrapped around either, and because it has a lower cold core (it does have an upper warm core though).


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Blown Away]

It’s June, gotta lean heavily on climatology here even when the most reliable models show a CV system moving across the MDR.
JMHO.

[Craters]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic
are associated with a strong tropical wave. Development, if any, of
this system should be slow to occur during the next several days due
to marginally conducive environmental conditions. This wave is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical eastern and central Atlantic through the middle
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

"Forecaster Papin"? Did Philippe get a position at the NHC?? Or is this just some kind of cosmic coincidence?

He indeed works there. According to this info he's one of their hurricane specialists. Here's his bio.

Well, I'll be -- good for him!!

[AtlanticWind]

"Forecaster Papin"? Did Philippe get a position at the NHC?? Or is this just some kind of cosmic coincidence?

He indeed works there. According to this info he's one of their hurricane specialists. Here's his bio.

Well, I'll be -- good for him!!

That is nice.
I did not realize that Lixon Avila retired.Will miss his discussions.
On side note ,to me it is sad that in this day and age we have no woman or people of color in the
NHC hurricane forecast divisions.(There are woman in the TAFB division)

[AtlanticWind]

95L is still looking like it is holding together pretty well,
Would not be at all suprised if the models start picking up on this again
at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

95L is still looking like it is holding together pretty well,
Would not be at all suprised if the models start picking up on this again
at some point.

Nothing to see here.. water is too cold for deep convection...

[abajan]

95L is still looking like it is holding together pretty well,
Would not be at all suprised if the models start picking up on this again
at some point.

Nothing to see here.. water is too cold for deep convection...

Actually, according to this post, the intensity models are picking upon it again.

[USTropics]

95L is still looking like it is holding together pretty well,
Would not be at all suprised if the models start picking up on this again
at some point.

Nothing to see here.. water is too cold for deep convection...

Actually, according to this post, the intensity models are picking upon it again.

I know Aric, that was definitely said tongue-in-cheek

To build on your post though, the ECMWF ensembles are showing more interest on the 12z run:


If it can create a protective pouch, I still wouldn't rule out a tiny, inner core developing as operational models hinted at a few days.

[tolakram]

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[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to move
westward at 15 to 20 mph through the weekend over cooler waters
that are located in the central tropical Atlantic, and therefore
any development of this system should be slow to occur.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing to see here.. water is too cold for deep convection...

Actually, according to this post, the intensity models are picking upon it again.

I know Aric, that was definitely said tongue-in-cheek

To build on your post though, the ECMWF ensembles are showing more interest on the 12z run:
https://i.imgur.com/O4DArdi.png

If it can create a protective pouch, I still wouldn't rule out a tiny, inner core developing as operational models hinted at a few days.

I dont think we have to worry about not being able to produce a protective pouch..




how many east pac ( and many atlantic systems) have rode the boundary of 80f water ( excluding sub tropics) ... many moving over 78 to 79 degrees. and convection pulses and even maintains.. typically shallow, but they survive just fine until warmer water.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so it's been like a day or so since I last looked at 95L thinking it had no chance of surviving, but I would like to ask is this: are the models starting picking up on this potentially encountering more favorable conditions down the road, or are we talking about another wave? I'm kind of confused on this honestly

[Stormybajan]

Ok, so it's been like a day or so since I last looked at 95L thinking it had no chance of surviving, but I would like to ask is this: are the models starting picking up on this potentially encountering more favorable conditions down the road, or are we talking about another wave? I'm kind of confused on this honestly

Most models are not picking up more favourable conditions for 95L however EPS ensembles and the operational Euro are picking up on a signal from the wave BEHIND 95L..confusing right?

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so it's been like a day or so since I last looked at 95L thinking it had no chance of surviving, but I would like to ask is this: are the models starting picking up on this potentially encountering more favorable conditions down the road, or are we talking about another wave? I'm kind of confused on this honestly

Most models are not picking up more favourable conditions for 95L however EPS ensembles and the operational Euro are picking up on a signal from the wave BEHIND 95L..confusing right?

Hmmm, interesting indeed. I wonder if this is just model hype or if they are actually detecting the idea that 95l paves the way for the wave behind it and basically "sacrifice" itself to allow the one behind it a better chance at surviving? Either way I would be shocked if we actually managed to get an MDR system this month or early next month, if anything a given system would form closer to land.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 26 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The wave is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph through the weekend over marginally
warm waters that are located in the central tropical Atlantic, and
therefore any development of this system should be slow to occur.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[Stormybajan]

Looks to be trying to to organize a circulation near 9N and 27W..could be wrong though

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be trying to to organize a circulation near 9N and 27W..could be wrong though

It is very much on its way. as was pretty expected in the backs of most people's mind.

one last major hurdle now that the circ has consolidated and the westerly course has started...

this convection slowly building around the center must continue to really tighten things up..

chances are def better than 10/10

ASCAT-A 1030Z

[wxman57]

Lots of dry air and wind shear in its path. I'm not concerned about it.

[BYG Jacob]

Lots of dry air and wind shear in its path. I'm not concerned about it.

This is more of a warning signal for things to come