EPAC: ENRIQUE - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Alright welcome Enrique! Please remain a fish and don't bring anything but needed rains to parched areas.

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation
of the low pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had
become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to
to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W.
Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better
organized, indicating that development has continued. All three
ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8. Enrique is
currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The
global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next
few days. The track guidance generally responds to this by
forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more
northwestward. After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward.
The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and
HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to
the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the
left side. The official forecast track lies near and is a little
slower than the various consensus models.

The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are
expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm
water in a moist environment. Thus, Enrique is expected to
strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the
weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative.
After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to
weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the
intensity consensus.

While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
few days. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
that area later today. In addition, outer rainbands are expected
to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ24 KNES 251218
TCSENP

A. 05E (ENRIQUE)

B. 25/1130Z

C. 15.6N

D. 101.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/GMI

H. REMARKS...0.4 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5
BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT. THE 1045Z 37GHz GMI
IMAGE WAS USED TO AID IN THIS CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/1045Z 15.5N 101.6W GMI


...HOSLEY

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ENRIQUE EP052021 06/25/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16
V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16
V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 58 64 76 81 77 71 65 59 54 48 41 36 30 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 1 4 10 14 19 13 14 17 15 17 20 21 25 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 8 4 -5 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 3 1
SHEAR DIR 14 323 340 42 122 85 93 102 107 90 121 114 130 128 132 131 139
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.1 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 157 154 151 147 141 136 129 115 106 101 102 92 83
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 83 79 80 80 79 77 78 74 76 72 73 69 72 66 66 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 17 22 24 24 19 15 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 55 63 56 79 90 109 97 92 68 68 52 48 34 29 42
200 MB DIV 89 86 136 155 96 133 99 128 105 91 27 34 26 -2 8 -4 2
700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 -1 -4 -12 -4 2 0 1 -1 0 0 0 2 2
LAND (KM) 232 239 222 229 237 251 223 221 217 242 272 313 247 211 235 303 359
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.6 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 21 20 16 16 16 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 7. 3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 33. 47. 52. 45. 34. 22. 14. 6. 0. -7. -12. -18. -24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 13.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 13.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 14.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 8.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -11.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 1.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 70.9% 61.4% 52.4% 35.4% 62.2% 61.4% 41.1%
Logistic: 26.4% 63.8% 64.1% 50.3% 9.6% 60.2% 39.2% 10.8%
Bayesian: 13.6% 62.1% 64.5% 37.6% 3.3% 33.5% 12.3% 2.2%
Consensus: 21.0% 65.6% 63.3% 46.8% 16.1% 52.0% 37.7% 18.0%
DTOPS: 17.0% 58.0% 34.0% 24.0% 14.0% 49.0% 53.0% 11.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Environment here is marginal after 24 hours if anything. Enrique needs to build an inner core fast if it wants to become formidable.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ENRIQUE EP052021 06/25/21 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16
V (KT) LAND 40 47 55 63 73 87 92 85 74 62 54 46 40 33 28 22 16
V (KT) LGEM 40 46 51 58 64 76 81 77 71 65 59 54 48 41 36 30 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 3 1 1 4 10 14 19 13 14 17 15 17 20 21 25 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 8 4 -5 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 3 1
SHEAR DIR 14 323 340 42 122 85 93 102 107 90 121 114 130 128 132 131 139
SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.8 25.5 24.6 24.1 24.1 23.1 22.3
POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 157 154 151 147 141 136 129 115 106 101 102 92 83
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 3 1 1 0
700-500 MB RH 83 79 80 80 79 77 78 74 76 72 73 69 72 66 66 57 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 17 22 24 24 19 15 11 10 8 7 6 6 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 55 63 56 79 90 109 97 92 68 68 52 48 34 29 42
200 MB DIV 89 86 136 155 96 133 99 128 105 91 27 34 26 -2 8 -4 2
700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 -1 -4 -12 -4 2 0 1 -1 0 0 0 2 2
LAND (KM) 232 239 222 229 237 251 223 221 217 242 272 313 247 211 235 303 359
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.9 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.6 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 21 20 16 16 16 10 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 17. 15. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 11. 7. 3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 33. 47. 52. 45. 34. 22. 14. 6. 0. -7. -12. -18. -24.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 13.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 13.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 14.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 6.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 8.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -11.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 1.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 70.9% 61.4% 52.4% 35.4% 62.2% 61.4% 41.1%
Logistic: 26.4% 63.8% 64.1% 50.3% 9.6% 60.2% 39.2% 10.8%
Bayesian: 13.6% 62.1% 64.5% 37.6% 3.3% 33.5% 12.3% 2.2%
Consensus: 21.0% 65.6% 63.3% 46.8% 16.1% 52.0% 37.7% 18.0%
DTOPS: 17.0% 58.0% 34.0% 24.0% 14.0% 49.0% 53.0% 11.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/25/21 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

Environment here is marginal after 24 hours if anything. Enrique needs to build an inner core fast if it wants to become formidable.

Looks like one is coming along. It should have a complete eyewall within the next 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning
with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south
and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed
by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner
core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of
subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate
was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards
the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this
advisory.

The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at
290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge
anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and
weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs
southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow
down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn
to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the
forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the
west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the
low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC
track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but
some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side
of the guidance envelope.

The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast
to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the
cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains
embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at
least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become
a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48
hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase
somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to
some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus,
weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the
forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along
Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during
the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of
weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment
becomes increasingly unfavorable.

While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on
the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause
locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[galaxy401]

Should definitly become the first hurricane and possibly first major considering it has a very favorable environment right now.

I personally hope it's just far north enough to bring some moisture for Arizona.

[Yellow Evan]

Probably a mid grade tropical storm given it’s developing a microwave eye.

[BYG Jacob]

Should definitly become the first hurricane and possibly first major considering it has a very favorable environment right now.

I personally hope it's just far north enough to bring some moisture for Arizona.

Moisture envelope will move far enough north for rain here.

[Yellow Evan]

Biggest uncertainty is how fast upwelling becomes a problem. Otherwise I don’t see why this wouldn’t intensify at T1.0/day, which would put this on track for a 75 knot hurricane by early Sunday.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1408466311869513732

[Yellow Evan]

Should definitly become the first hurricane and possibly first major considering it has a very favorable environment right now.

I personally hope it's just far north enough to bring some moisture for Arizona.

The storm’s circulation combined with an easterly wave should move moisture into the state by early next week.

[cycloneye]

A little dissapointed that recon will not go.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.8 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is
expected to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest
forecast to occur by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique could become a
hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of
the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

A. 05E (ENRIQUE)

B. 25/1730Z

C. 15.7N

D. 102.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0.5 CURVED BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 1.5
BASED ON A NORMAL DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/1326Z 15.7N 102.1W SSMIS


...HOSLEY

[aspen]

There’s a huge burst of deep convection firing over the center, which could help consolidate the storm and help it form a complete eyewall.

[ElectricStorm]

05E ENRIQUE 210625 1800 15.8N 103.0W EPAC 45 1002

[aspen]

A low res pass, but it doesn’t look good regardless.