EPAC: CARLOS - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 5 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the
past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located
about 450 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. In addition,
satellite images suggest that the low-level circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. This system will likely become a tropical
depression on Sunday while it moves slowly westward. Environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for additional
development in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90percent.

00z HWRF develops it again but only as a 50kt TC.

[JW-_-]

[Kingarabian]

SAB up to 2.0.

TXPZ21 KNES 060553
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 06/0530Z

C. 13.4N

D. 108.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 WHITE BANING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 2.0. MET IS
1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

[JW-_-]

Subjective but meets td classification viva amsu.

..................................................................................................................

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
continue to show increasing signs of organization. This system will
likely become a tropical depression later today or tonight while it
moves slowly westward. Environmental conditions are expected to
become less conducive for additional development in a couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has nothing.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks more broad than I would like and it has a terrible moisture envelope. NHC should lower development chances due to this as well as a lack of model support.

[aspen]

Looks more broad than I would like and it has a terrible moisture envelope. NHC should lower development chances due to this as well as a lack of model support.

That’s a stark contrast to model runs not even two days old showing a good moisture envelope, decently quick development, and a small core.

[cycloneye]

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is
producing an organized area of showers and thunderstorms and could
be developing a better-defined surface circulation. This system
will likely become a tropical depression by tonight while it moves
slowly westward. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
favorable for additional development in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

The models since yesterday have been poofing this for 3 model cycles now and this has consistently maintained convection. IMO this has been a TD for the past 24 hours regardless of imperfections in LLC structure that ASCAT shows.

[Yellow Evan]

06/1730 UTC 13.3N 108.5W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

What appears to be coming out from the east is midshear primarily located to the S/SSW of it, appears to be close enough and is impacting the system. The deeper convection is outpacing the LLC on visible imagery. That being said it's increasingly looking like it warrants a classification. It has had persistent deep convection near the center and the center is clear as day on visible imagery.

[ElectricStorm]

Should see a TD or a weak TS out of this, but not much more than that imo

[Kingarabian]

This GMI pass taken about 5 hours ago:


With this visible at that time:

[Yellow Evan]

Classifiable at this point as long as it can sustain itself.

[Kingarabian]

Burst of convection:

[Kingarabian]

NHC starting to lose interest. Down from 90/90.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 6 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico. However, the circulation of the system remains broad and
elongated and it still lacks a well-defined center. Development of
this system into a short-lived tropical depression is still likely
before environmental conditions become less favorable by late
Monday. The low pressure area is expected to move slowly westward
well south of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

How does a system with some banding features, persistent convection, a low level center (well defined or not) and a Dvorak reading of 2.0 not be classified?

[aspen]

Looks like a TD to me. Convection has been persistent since last night. Imagine if this never gets classified.

[JW-_-]

Without recon, they can be trigger shy with marginal systems @ birth.