ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

Reformed north as i suspected and slowing down.

Maybe the models showing the northerly tracks that go over Hispaniola (or at least do not manage to hit the tallest mountain range in the island's center) are not completely out of their minds?

And that trend occurred after recon data in 18z. 00z will be interesting.

[Owasso]

[skyline385]

Grace is really pumping towers at the moment. We are lucky that it's just moving so fast to not RI

[eastcoastFL]

[Kohlecane]

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/60681067.gif?0.4267125104754734

she wants to resemble the TS symbol so bad haha

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seeing some evidence that Grace truly has a closed LLC now. A ship obs near the LLC shows a west wind of ~14mph.

[captainbarbossa19]

Grace sure is a mess. Not sure she will survive past Hispaniola. However, I recall how a mess Laura was before she hit Hispaniola too so I am not going to completely ignore Grace. Also, it would be strange to have two storms travel across Hispaniola in less than a week. Has that ever been recorded before?

[AutoPenalti]

It’s slowed down.

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess I was wrong about Grace avoiding the Shredder. The national hurricane center thinks it will probably visit the shredder. I doubt she will survive, especially since she can't even get going over open water..... Feel bad for the big rains on the islands, but the USA mainland might have dodged another bullet yet again.. We'll see what September brings and if our luck will run out or not...

[sikkar]

Appears to be diving southwest based on radar.

[SoupBone]

I guess I was wrong about Grace avoiding the Shredder. The national hurricane center thinks it will probably visit the shredder. I doubt she will survive, especially since she can't even get going over open water..... Feel bad for the big rains on the islands, but the USA mainland might have dodged another bullet yet again.. We'll see what September brings and if our luck will run out or not...

The latest GFS sort of shows that, with the remaining parts left of her heading to Corpus Christi for some rain.

[Craters]

https://i.postimg.cc/9FFnHPF3/ASCAT.jpg

How in the bleepity-bleeping-bleep can anybody expect to initialize a model correctly from something like that??!?

[ConvergenceZone]

I guess I was wrong about Grace avoiding the Shredder. The national hurricane center thinks it will probably visit the shredder. I doubt she will survive, especially since she can't even get going over open water..... Feel bad for the big rains on the islands, but the USA mainland might have dodged another bullet yet again.. We'll see what September brings and if our luck will run out or not...

The latest GFS sort of shows that, with the remaining parts left of her heading to Corpus Christi for some rain.

Yep, more than likely just going to bring some rains to the gulf states...I know you can never say never, but based upon how Fred did, I absolutely don't see anyway this will survive Hispaniola, if it indeed heads over those mountains... I'm with the national weather's service's thinking on this one....

[skyline385]

0Z HWRF is pulling a Dorian lol, suddenly jumps north to avoid all islands

[hurricanes1234]

T&T had an interesting afternoon yesterday. Even though we weren't directly affected by Grace, its presence in the region caused our winds to slow down to 10 km/h or less and come in from the south, rather than E/ENE/ESE as they normally would. With the intense daytime heating and near-calm conditions, not to mention all the equatorial moisture being pulled up from South America, strong thunderstorms exploded over northwestern Trinidad close to the capital. Bolts of lightning were coming down all around me.

I managed to catch some of them using the 960 fps mode on my phone. The thunder was phenomenal and storms kept popping up for hours, one after the other.




Cloud tops in these thunderstorms were near or below -80°C, which is rather cold for afternoon thunderstorms here. But it didn't surprise me at all given how downright intense they were. Whenever low pressure systems pass north of us and tamper with our winds, the thunderstorms in T&T (especially Trinidad) tend to be a lot more sinister, even though we're hundreds of kilometres from the systems themselves. It's amazing when you think of how far-reaching the peripheral impacts of tropical cyclones can be. Thankfully, there were no reports of damage from this burst of wild weather but the same pattern is expected to be in place tomorrow so I'll be watching it very closely. Stay safe, everyone!

[AtlanticWind]

Looks a little better this early morning , looks like some banding happening.

Haven't seen recon schedule , anyone know the next flights

[Shell Mound]

0Z HWRF is pulling a Dorian lol, suddenly jumps north to avoid all islands

That’s definitely not going to happen, given mid-level shear “dragging” the LLC farther west, owing to the placement and configuration of convection.

[Sciencerocks]

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/W4Hktv06/20210815-01-20-flag.png

This system looks more like a sharp wave axis than a tropical storm. Plenty of waves also generate gale-force winds at 10 m. Fred and Grace were/are borderline.

[wxman57]

Yes, more of a wave than a TS. Models are consistent in building a ridge across the northern Gulf Coast post-Fred. That may drive Grace west to northern Mexico or south Texas. Time will tell how it looks when it reaches the Gulf. Gotta get on the next forecast. Been here looking at the tropics since 4:15am. 8 more 12-14 hr early shifts to go.