ATL: ELSA - Models

[eastcoastFL]

Here comes the turn.. 954mb

HWRF going bonkers...

Unreal...hopefully it goes west of the FL. Keys....or East...just not a direct hit.

If this is true, it will be a disaster for the area. The local officials still are going with a tropical storm is our only threat. If this verifies it will be too late for evacuations late Sunday\early Monday. The holiday weekend brings in over 100,000 tourists to the Florida Keys.

I hope the NHC stops being so conservative with the intensity forecast....Monroe County has a meeting at 5pm this afternoon. If Elsa is still only forecast to be a storm over the Keys, they will take minimum precautions.

Looks like it will go slightly to your west. At least on HWRF

[eastcoastFL]

Cuba takes a big bite but still intact

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro initialized:

[AutoPenalti]

Stronger ridge on the Euro.

[gatorcane]

+24 hours:

[Jr0d]

Here comes the turn.. 954mb

HWRF going bonkers...

Unreal...hopefully it goes west of the FL. Keys....or East...just not a direct hit.

If this is true, it will be a disaster for the area. The local officials still are going with a tropical storm is our only threat. If this verifies it will be too late for evacuations late Sunday\early Monday. The holiday weekend brings in over 100,000 tourists to the Florida Keys.

I hope the NHC stops being so conservative with the intensity forecast....Monroe County has a meeting at 5pm this afternoon. If Elsa is still only forecast to be a storm over the Keys, they will take minimum precautions.

Looks like it will go slightly to your west. At least on HWRF

Way too close for comfort.....even though it Cuba will weaken the storm, it does not take much time for a storm over the Gulfstream to intensify quickly...and an intensifying storm 8s much more intense than a weakening storm. Given the tenacity of Elsa so far, I think it is wise not to under estimate her.

Unfortunately I do not think the GFS will run again before the 5pm advisory....I am very interested in what the NHC will do. Based on the HWRF and the abundance of caution I would think they will forecast Elsa to be a hurricane when it makes her close approach to the Florida Keys ...even though it is often overly bullish.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, last 4 runs...

[AutoPenalti]

HMON has landfall in Punta Gorda

[gatorcane]

Euro 48 hours:

[sponger]

These last few frames of the HMON will be interesting.


Center continues NW past 84W at hour 108.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021070212&fh=144

[NDG]

Look who's coming on board little by little

[gatorcane]

Euro 72 hours, open wave off SE Florida coast:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro 72 hours, open wave off SE Florida coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs9czmFy/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

This model hates Elsa.

[Blown Away]

For SE FL Euro track is the worst, clips Haiti & E Cuba and has most time over water... Fortunately it basically dissipates it after clipping Haiti...

[eastcoastFL]

Euro 72 hours, open wave off SE Florida coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs9czmFy/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

Now instead of DR busting it open its Cuba. Maybe it will get lucky and be right. I wouldn’t be mad.

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro 72 hours, open wave off SE Florida coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs9czmFy/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-4.png

It just keeps saying, "let it go Elsa! You are a monster!"

[Cat5James]

Disregarding what the Euro does with Elsa itself, it is showing a different ridging solution for July 5th then the GFS. The bridge does not stretch across Florida as the GFS is showing. Interesting to have such different solutions even in HP ridge 3 days out.

[jlauderdal]

Euro 48 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/MpGkL03Y/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-3.png

Ridge building in, euro finally getting the right idea, of course, the intensity is still a mess, may take another day or two for the model to resolve a solution that actually makes some sense

[Nimbus]

Disregarding what the Euro does with Elsa itself, it is showing a different ridging solution for July 5th then the GFS. The bridge does not stretch across Florida as the GFS is showing. Interesting to have such different solutions even in HP ridge 3 days out.

12Z HWRF is seeing the 12z GFS ridging evolution with a track near Apalachicola.
What does the shallow-Layer Beta and Advection Model Track Forecast show for remnants VS well developed cyclone BAMD?

[AutoPenalti]

Disregarding what the Euro does with Elsa itself, it is showing a different ridging solution for July 5th then the GFS. The bridge does not stretch across Florida as the GFS is showing. Interesting to have such different solutions even in HP ridge 3 days out.

12Z HWRF is seeing the 12z GFS ridging evolution with a track near Apalachicola.
What does the low level barometric model show for remnants VS well developed cyclone BAMD?

Doesn't the HWRF use the same synoptic environment as the GFS?