ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/884132163711287297/629a35b8-29e7-48e0-acbc-5881a3fa2c8f.png

T5.5.

Would there be any subtractions from center not being in the middle of the apparent eye?

No. Eye counts as WMG there.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT27 KNES 051804
TCSNTL

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 05/1730Z

C. 20.1N

D. 50.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WARM MEDIUM GREY EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND
EMBEDDED IN MEDIUM GREY COLD OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER
AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +1.0 IS MADE TO THE DT. THE MET AND PT AGREE WITH
THE DT AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON A STEADY TREND OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[gatorcane]

Saved loop

[Blown Away]

https://i.ibb.co/jT3dYNR/Larry-1.png

That is a very cool pic!!

[aspen]

The eye is collapsing. Something is causing Larry to significantly weaken. The 18z best track keeps it at 110 kt, which I disagree with; it might not even be a major anymore. I have no idea what could be causing this.

[cycloneye]

The eye is collapsing. Something is causing Larry to significantly weaken. The 18z best track keeps it at 110 kt, which I disagree with; it might not even be a major anymore. I have no idea what could be causing this.

SW shear?

[aspen]

The eye is collapsing. Something is causing Larry to significantly weaken. The 18z best track keeps it at 110 kt, which I disagree with; it might not even be a major anymore. I have no idea what could be causing this.

SW shear?

Is it even enough to cause such a degradation? If you look on visible imagery, the southern side doesn’t seem as restricted as it was yesterday and earlier this morning. Either something else is going on (possibly upwelling due to marginal SSTs abs Larry’s large size), or the shear is changing from upper-level to mid-level.

[Iceresistance]

The eye is collapsing. Something is causing Larry to significantly weaken. The 18z best track keeps it at 110 kt, which I disagree with; it might not even be a major anymore. I have no idea what could be causing this.

SW shear?

Is it even enough to cause such a degradation? If you look on visible imagery, the southern side doesn’t seem as restricted as it was yesterday and earlier this morning. Either something else is going on (possibly upwelling due to marginal SSTs abs Larry’s large size), or the shear is changing from upper-level to mid-level.

EWRC?

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

The eye is collapsing. Something is causing Larry to significantly weaken. The 18z best track keeps it at 110 kt, which I disagree with; it might not even be a major anymore. I have no idea what could be causing this.

Likely another ERC + dry air combo. Analyzed shear from CMISS is pretty favorable.

[Nimbus]

All the models have this tracking east of Bermuda but after the EWRC Larry may choose a huge eye.

[supercane4867]

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/9NoZkHD.jpg

Yet another EWRC…this should be the final one, unless it wants to challenge Winnie for the largest eye on record. That new eye looks to be about 100-130 miles across.

[sikkar]

The outline of the new eye is taking shape! Anyways is it not surprising that NHC kept the same intensity given how degraded Larry looks?

[Meteophile]

It had that weird band on the west from the eye towards the eye that whole time. It just didn't seem to fit the movement of the upper (?) eyewall. It seemed like a structural issue, as if there was a larger eye, not well-centered below the smaller eye. Even if it looked like a very strong system on a non animated image, it was maybe not that strong. Dvorak doesnt calculate the storms with 3d. It only takes the cloudTOPS temperature.

Looking at the visible imagery, it finally starts to look "coherent" with this "band" (lower eyewall ?) getting "synchronized" with the higher cloudtops, even if the cdo looks much more incomplete than a few hours ago.

(i don't know a lot about cyclones, so huh... take this in count).

[aspen]

The outline of the new eye is taking shape! Anyways is it not surprising that NHC kept the same intensity given how degraded Larry looks?

I’m seeing that outline too. The center of the eye has also warmed back up to over 10C again. Once the rest of it clears, it’s gonna make Linda look tiny by comparison.

[Woofde]

The new eye Larry is clearing is going to be absolutely massive. Larry's is aiming for the Hula Hoop aesthetic.

[Yellow Evan]

[aspen]

If that eye clears out, it’ll be roughly 222 km across (2 degrees of latitude) — the size of the asteroid Psyche.

[Kazmit]

Hurricanes with large eyes intimidate me. They look like they want to gobble up everything in their path.