ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[alienstorm]

Not sure there is a LLC maybe MLC cant see no evidence of LLC o radar. Also recon was short lived wonder if they had issues.

[Kohlecane]

Not sure there is a LLC maybe MLC cant see no evidence of LLC o radar. Also recon was short lived wonder if they had issues.

Thats what I was thinking, seems that they were in and out briefly

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1426632976662728706

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection seems to have relocated closer to the center. I believe the MLC is attempting to put down a LLC. What implications this has is that the quicker it does so, the more influenced it will be by the ridge and go south IMHO.

[Category5Kaiju]

Convection seems to have relocated closer to the center. I believe the MLC is attempting to put down a LLC. What implications this has is that the quicker it does so, the more influenced it will be by the ridge and go south IMHO.

Wouldn’t a stronger storm go more north as it can easily feel weaknesses in the ridge?

[toad strangler]

Convection seems to have relocated closer to the center. I believe the MLC is attempting to put down a LLC. What implications this has is that the quicker it does so, the more influenced it will be by the ridge and go south IMHO.

Wouldn’t a stronger storm go more north as it can easily feel weaknesses in the ridge?

Sure, if there is a weakness.

[aspen]

Convection seems to have relocated closer to the center. I believe the MLC is attempting to put down a LLC. What implications this has is that the quicker it does so, the more influenced it will be by the ridge and go south IMHO.

Wouldn’t a stronger storm go more north as it can easily feel weaknesses in the ridge?

Sure, if there is a weakness.

I was thinking that the Bermuda low pressure system/maybe Future Henri could provide a weakness in the ridge, but recent model runs seem to suggest it’ll have no impact.

[galaxy401]

To me, it's looking more likely Grace is going to go over Hispaniola...and at a terrible time too since an Earthquake just struck Haiti.

[IcyTundra]

Convection seems to have relocated closer to the center. I believe the MLC is attempting to put down a LLC. What implications this has is that the quicker it does so, the more influenced it will be by the ridge and go south IMHO.

Wouldn’t a stronger storm go more north as it can easily feel weaknesses in the ridge?

Not sure I think ridging has been trending stronger in the models.

[CyclonicFury]

W winds in Guadeloupe from TFFR just shifted to out of the WSW

[aspen]

I really hope the southward trend continues so Grace spared Haiti from a direct or nearby landfall, because if it follows the NHC cone exactly, it’ll be devastating.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To me, it's looking more likely Grace is going to go over Hispaniola...and at a terrible time too since an Earthquake just struck Haiti.

IMO, I think there's a growing possibility that it'll slide just south of Hispaniola as shown by the UKMET and HWRF.

[Blown Away]

Appears some mid level vorticity is moving WNW and the estimated LLC is speeding off almost due W and appears to be running away from convection.

[tolakram]

Tropical Tidbits, keyed to start when Grace is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/3CsZfNKbjGc?t=373

[SFLcane]

Most unsure nhc discussion I have ever read

[ElectricStorm]

What's up with that blob to the south? Could that eventually lead to the LLC getting pulled towards it?
It almost looks like it's splitting

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm anything south of that NHC forecast track would likely avoid the tallest mountains of Hispaniola...

[IcyTundra]

The models won't have the data from recon until the 0Z runs right?

[Jr0d]

Kind of reminds me of Erika in 2015. Was forecast to strengthen, had a lot of model support, even at one point was forecast to hit Florida as a hurricane but never got stacked, was moving very fast which inhibited it and ended up dissipating over Hispaniola.

With Wxman57 bullish on this one, someone has to give a bearish perspective.

[wxman57]

Wouldn't rule out Grace staying weaker initially and tracking south of Cuba (remember Laura?). Lots of track uncertainty depending on how well Grace organizes over the next 24-36 hrs. Grace will be a problem. Wish I could just issue a 5-day forecast like the NHC vs. a 7-day.

Can you expound on this? More organized takes what track versus a more weak system?

Weaker means farther south, possibly over Cuba and dissipating or south of Cuba and a hurricane in southern Gulf late this coming week.