ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

If it continues to dip SW before heading back WNW it may increase its chances of staying south of the islands.

[Michele B]

If it continues to dip SW before heading back WNW it may increase its chances of staying south of the islands.

There's a huge High Pressure ridge east of FL. Hope it stays strong so this storm cannot turn poleward.

[eastcoastFL]

If it continues to dip SW before heading back WNW it may increase its chances of staying south of the islands.

There's a huge High Pressure ridge east of FL. Hope it stays strong so this storm cannot turn poleward.

I think there was a trough that may come across and weaken it next week opening up an alley for it to head north. I’m not 100% sure it was a trough but almost all of the models are showing a curve to the NW then N at some point as it gets near cuba. I think the best scenario would be for Hispaniola to shred it while it’s still weak but it doesn’t seem to likely with how it’s chugging along so far south.

[Jr0d]

Reminds me of Erika back in 2015, had a similar track if I remember, intensified rapidly and weakened but, had a smaller core.

I remember that one. Central Florida was in the cone and it was forecast to become a hurricane. My marina was taking hurricane precautions and wanted me to move to a more protected slip....I told the dock master to.wait until the storm passes Hispaniola before getting too concerned. Needless to say dry air, shear and the mountains of Hispaniola ripped it apart and we got nothing. I did find it amusing that I was the youngest person at the marina and the least worried...while most were in full panic mode. I also remember Florida's governor calling for a state of emergency prematurely based on the 100++hour forecast.

Hopefully it will be a repeat of Erika '15(minus the deadly flooding on Hispanola).but I am growing increasingly concerned that we will not be so lucky this time.

[mpic]

Been wondering how early I'd have to start tidying up outside this year. Made sure I stocked up supplies early in case this got shut down again. Just hope it stays far enough west to not make it any worse in Miami right now.

[JaxGator]

Forgot how to post pictures on here, but on the latest frame of the GOES-16 IR loop shows the clouds on the north and west sides of PTC-5 are starting to get that fork/stripped look. Anyone recall the technical term for those? And hey everyone, it’s been awhile.

[eastcoastFL]

If it continues to dip SW before heading back WNW it may increase its chances of staying south of the islands.

There's a huge High Pressure ridge east of FL. Hope it stays strong so this storm cannot turn poleward.

The discussion called it a mid latitude trough

After 72 h, the system is expected to
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow
its forward speed and turn more northwestward.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Officially TD5 on the NHC site.

Code: Select all

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY...
11:00 PM AST Wed Jun 30
Location: 9.6°N 46.3°W
Moving: W at 23 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[Aric Dunn]

When you get these rotating masses like this.. you typically get short term motion to wsw as they deepen and that mass shifts to the SW quad.. which it appears to be doing..

don't be surprised if the HWRF is right..

[eastcoastFL]

1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 46.3W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Guadeloupe

[eastcoastFL]

When you get these rotating masses like this.. you typically get short term motion to wsw as they deepen and that mass shifts to the SW quad.. which it appears to be doing..

don't be surprised if the HWRF is right..

Makes sense. Thank you. HWRF did pretty well with some storms last year. Maybe the upgrades are working. I really like the IR Simulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Any southern adjustments to that track from prolonged westward movement or wsws wobbles and it srays in lighter shear. Longer. Though models do show the shear axis lifting north as well.

[eastcoastFL]

Any southern adjustments to that track from prolonged westward movement or wsws wobbles and it srays in lighter shear. Longer. Though models do show the shear axis lifting north as well.

They mentioned at the end of the disco that they were being conservative. Pretty much hedging between a more southern track which could end up as a hurricane and a slightly more northern track getting shredded by Hispaniola. I’m thinking just as a guess that it may stay south of the islands under central or western Cuba possibly clipping Jamaica.

[Category5Kaiju]

It is important to note that should Elsa traverse the Jamaica Channel and the waters right off south Cuba, the storm will come in contact with waters with one of the highest UOHC levels in the Atlantic. Assuming all other factors are favorable, the HWRF idea of it strengthening a lot in that region is definitely possible imho.

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on TD-5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9MMgPsDukc

[StPeteMike]

The mention of being conservative in the discussion is a little concerning. Know it’s still 5 days out and things can happen to prevent the storm from strengthening into a hurricane, but much more comforting to have a 5 day forecast with a TS due to shear or drier air filtering in than a strong TS with a mention of them being conservative.

I get the reason, don’t want to alarm too many people. Guess Saturday will be a better time with a clearer picture of what to expect.

[eastcoastFL]

Banding feature are looking really good, I’d be shocked if we don’t wake up to Elsa

[Category5Kaiju]

TD5's banding looks pretty good; there's some easterly shear that I think is present but I am pretty sure that that will have little to no impact on how this storm is performing and will perform in the short term otherwise.

[cheezyWXguy]

This has to be about the most vigorous looking tropical depression I can recall. Knowing that Danny got its name with the appearance it had, and comparing it to this currently unnamed system is otherworldly to me

[eastcoastFL]

This has to be about the most vigorous looking tropical depression I can recall. Knowing that Danny got its name with the appearance it had, and comparing it to this currently unnamed system is otherworldly to me

I think the difference is Danny did have that little naked swirl with a closed circ and then convection blew up and radar confirmed TS winds so he got his name. TD5 has it all but they just haven’t been able to really confirm the center until now and the last SCAT pass showed it was still elongated. Once that gets worked out I think Elsa will be our most impressive TS so far. If the models are right she maybe our first cane.