ATL: FRED - Models

[tolakram]

HWRF still has the best record for intensity, just not here. I think you have to step back and ask why it got the intensity so wrong here. These islands add so much more randomness to the forecast that the models always struggle badly.

[NDG]

One thing to point out from the 12z SHIPS model is that it does not paint that bad of a picutere in the eastern GOM for Fred to regain strength.
If Fred tracks just far enough offshore from the FL Peninsula it could very well become a Cat 1 Hurricane before coming ashore in NW FL.
Also notice the moist envirenment it will have.
Also notice how slowly it will be tracking northward, it could spend around 48 hrs over the eastern GOM more than plenty of time to gain strength.

[tolakram]

6Z Euro

[tolakram]

Intensity verification now available here: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062021/

Click on these buttons to see the graphs:


model designations here: https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/models.html

[Cat5James]

Icon significant shift east..

[BobHarlem]

12z icon has it right up through south Florida into the spine starting late Saturday morning. Also 95L sneaks in the shot toward the leewards. Prior run clipped key west and moved into the Gulf, so a decent shift right.

[BobHarlem]

edit to remove repost of 6z.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS shows it over the keys and a west coast offshore rider, gets a bit stronger before the panhandle, but gets sheared and weakens right at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/YMuUYJa.gif

That's 06Z

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS shows it over the keys and a west coast offshore rider, gets a bit stronger before the panhandle, but gets sheared and weakens right at landfall.

That's 06Z

Gah, flipped too quickly. Actual 12z is doing some interesting stuff though, mainly some sort of loop? in the gulf. Not sure since it's still pumping out.

[BobHarlem]

12z Gfs (For real) kind of disorganized mess, never really gets going.

[Stormcenter]

Latest GFS is not impressive at all.

Looks a little further west with this run.

[Weatherboy1]

GFS a bit further west. Canadian ever so slightly further east. But both really don't see much re-strengthening after doing battle with island of Hispanola. And frankly, I can't blame them given the path it looks like Fred is going to take here. Unless we get some kind of imminent NW/N jog/jump in center, not looking good for this one.

[OuterBanker]

Models are still all over the place. ECENS just as as crazy as GEFS.

[OuterBanker]

I guess I can't post directly from Weathernerds.
Links:https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

[SFLcane]

Slow down hwrf..

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty good east shift and a substantial uptick in intensity on the 12z HWRF versus the 06z.

[Blown Away]

Slow down hwrf..

https://i.postimg.cc/KjxhJtnG/4-BFA59-A8-FF30-4242-B1-A5-D291-CC75-C7-EE.gif

@2.5 degrees E of 06z at @54 hrs.

[tolakram]

I guess I can't post directly from Weathernerds.
Links:https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gefs.html
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

No, you cannot embed images here, you have to copy them to an image hosting service. In the case of weathernerds it's not us blocking, it's them, to conserve bandwidth. This is why we implemented our policy years ago. When you embed an image from another weather site their bandwidth is used to supply the image to every user that views it on storm2k. We get the traffic, they pay for the bandwidth. That's not a good thing. Image hosting sites, many which are free, allow this because they make money off of users who pay them for longer term image storage.

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf near or at hurricane strength near andros island

[Jr0d]

The HWRF is back to being the HWRF on this run. After having the center 'jump' north over Hispaniola it shows Fred pulling itself together on late Friday becoming a hurricane, also a bit slower than most of the models.