EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

That's just the SHIPS analysis which is on and off.

However most recently, it has begun to deviate away from the classic annular look with banding developing to the W/NW of the system.
https://i.imgur.com/qnvvw8H.gif

It’s also gaining latitude now and will be running into water too cold to support its high intensity. Without an annular structure to make it an unkillable doom donut, it will probably start to weaken at a typical pace.

[Kingarabian]

That's just the SHIPS analysis which is on and off.

However most recently, it has begun to deviate away from the classic annular look with banding developing to the W/NW of the system.
https://i.imgur.com/qnvvw8H.gif

It’s also gaining latitude now and will be running into water too cold to support its high intensity. Without an annular structure to make it an unkillable doom donut, it will probably start to weaken at a typical pace.

Judging by the IR presentation and the convective rings fluctuating from the past two hours, its also seems to be going through a number of core changes.

[Yellow Evan]

The surrounding environment strongly supports the at least quasi-annular structure until shear kicks in so I’d expect it to maintain its structure until then. SSTs aren’t going to support a strong hurricane forever, however.

[EquusStorm]

Absolute beauty. The most fun thing to track in the Epac since 2018 (sorry Douglas!)

[Yellow Evan]

Absolute beauty. The most fun thing to track in the Epac since 2018 (sorry Douglas!)

Barbara 2019?

[EquusStorm]

I forgot Barbara was that recent lmao, best since Barbara then

[Kingarabian]

It's the best system to track since the 2018 monsters. Strictly because of its size, the conditions, the annular structure it has achieved and maintained, all despite the not as favorable background state.

[aspen]

It's the best system to track since the 2018 monsters. Strictly because of its size, the conditions, the annular structure it has achieved and maintained, all despite the not as favorable background state.

Fitting, since it’s kind of Hector The Sequel in terms of its structure and appearance.

The fact that Felicia has become such a formidable storm within “eh” SSTs during a neutral/cool ENSO year does make me wonder if this EPac season won’t be as suppressed as we’ve initially thought, but then again, Douglas existed last year and despite being a long-tracking July Cat 4 that was likely about as strong as Felicia, the 2020 EPac season was still very underwhelming.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 172349
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 17/2330Z

C. 15.1N

D. 125.7W

E. TWO/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 6.0 BASED ON A STEADY
TREND IN LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[cycloneye]

Begins to go down.

EP, 06, 2021071800, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1257W, 120, 949, HU

[Kingarabian]

Despite the IR imagery showing some banding, it remains almost 100% annular on microwave. Remarkable.

[aspen]

Despite the IR imagery showing some banding, it remains almost 100% annular on microwave. Remarkable.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y0rBN7Bt/image.png

In the slim event it both keeps that structure and moves over a warmer pocket of water, maybe it could intensify some more. But it looks like Felicia is probably done with intensification.

[galaxy401]

That's a very nice donut. Not often you see a storm maintain a well defined eye for so long.

[Chris90]

Not when it comes to structure, but the storm Felicia is reminding me of is Fernanda '17. A mid-July Cat 4 "F" storm at 125W heading to the west in a year that has marginal EPAC conditions. Felicia is just a few degrees farther north than Fernanda was and has a phenomenal annular structure.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1416552312542277633

[Yellow Evan]

Not when it comes to structure, but the storm Felicia is reminding me of is Fernanda '17. A mid-July Cat 4 "F" storm at 125W heading to the west in a year that has marginal EPAC conditions. Felicia is just a few degrees farther north than Fernanda was and has a phenomenal annular structure.

FWIW Fernanda had more banding and was over non-marginal SST’s for its life.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Felicia cloud tops are cooling. She managed to stave off the ERC and has achieved w ring again. wow. Over 26C waters.

[Yellow Evan]

This is so beautiful.

[Kingarabian]

Maybe they'll keep it at 125kts at this rate.

[Sciencerocks]