ATL: ELSA - Models

[toad strangler]

A more significant NE trend through 90 on the 18z GFS looking to split Cuba at the 50 yard line

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trending back towards So Flo?

here comes the windshield wipering effect.

[NorthPalm-Rainman]

Looks slightly more east at 108 hr on GFS, and slightly weaker.

[toad strangler]

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

Saint Pete / Tampa area landfall through ocala on 18Z GFA

[SFLcane]

Saint Pete / Tampa area landfall through ocala on 18Z GFA

Tampa? That looks it comes into around Fort Myers.

[toad strangler]

Saint Pete / Tampa area landfall through ocala on 18Z GFA

Tampa? That looks it comes into around Fort Myers.

https://i.postimg.cc/v8jT2fDB/2138-B922-401-C-40-AE-9-CFE-C0-B7-A30-AA7-BF.gif

Ya, I was looking at a broader view. East shift on 18z GFS

[MetroMike]

Saint Pete / Tampa area landfall through ocala on 18Z GFA

Tampa? That looks it comes into around Fort Myers.

https://i.postimg.cc/v8jT2fDB/2138-B922-401-C-40-AE-9-CFE-C0-B7-A30-AA7-BF.gif

Close enough to cause major impacts to the big cities.

[SFLcane]

[robbielyn]

18z usually bunk run. but my cousin would be in the crosshairs. and miami doesn’t need the rain with trying to do search and rescue even if it’s not a direct hit. let’s hope the unmet is right and turns elsa into a trough.

[chaser1]

A more significant NE trend through 90 on the 18z GFS looking to split Cuba at the 50 yard line

Uh oh..... flags thrown, official time-out. Players down on the field

[toad strangler]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

Nah.. wide range of possibilities

[toad strangler]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

Nah.. wide range of possibilities

Well I see your point as really the members look like bird shot all over the place but definitely weighted more to the W verbatim. There are more than a few E members though ...

[Steve]

12z JMA and EC don't like it at all. 18z GFS moves back to SWFL. 18z ICON still absorbs the energy into the front and takes it out to sea. 18z HMON is running now, HWRF hasn't started yet.

[aspen]

18z HWRF at T+18hrs is more disorganized than in the previous run. In fact, it looks more disorganized than it is now.

[Cat5James]

18z HWRF at T+18hrs is more disorganized than in the previous run. In fact, it looks more disorganized than it is now.

I disagree 18 hours out it looks better then last run. there is more deep convection around the center and pressure is only 1 mb higher.

[eastcoastFL]

18z GEFS are once again weighted much further WEST even with the Op shift EAST

Gonna be a long weekend with the wind shield wipers on

[toad strangler]

The 5PM NHC Cone is a large repudiation of the Euro