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ATL: MINDY - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Looks like pretty good agreement between GFS and Euro now on a weak low developing off the Florida panhandle - perhaps a tropical depression by wednesday night. Convection getting a little healthier in the southern GOM this morning as the system continues to slowly pull north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
chaser1 wrote:If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL
18z NAM 3km does develop and takes toward PCB with 60mph wind gusts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:chaser1 wrote:If something were to come out of 91L, I have to think it'll originate in the deep convection east of that LLC this a.m. that got quickly obliterated. I believe there is a weak mid level rotation but it would need time. I personally think that the GFS is a bit too fast on the primary vorticity reaching the Panhandle late Wednesday night. Clearly though, model support is meh... Can't even get our crazy uncle OR NAM to bite on development LOL
18z NAM 3km does develop and takes toward PCB with 60mph wind gusts.
12z WRF mesoscale model also develops it into a 999 mb storm.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2021090712&fh=9
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
00z HWRF develops today and brings a 1002mb weak TS into Walton County, between Destin and PCB, winds to 50mph.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
robbielyn wrote:Gums wrote:Salute!
We Panhandle folks are praying for the cold front and send the future Mindy over to Big Bend or even Tampa
Been saved by early fronts many times
Gums sends..
Uh well we in tampabay area don’t want 91L either. hopefully it’s just rain.
We dont need anymore rain either
fortunately this looks to be a nothingburger with extra nothing so far on the model runs
My septic tank is full of water because of the ground water.
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i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models
The HWRF takes Tropical Depression 13L to a 50.6-knot 1000.4-millibar tropical storm. The HWRF was the best model for the peak intensity of Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in a similar region of the world.
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Re: ATL: MINDY - Models
So a while back I remember some models were showing development/redevelopment of then-91L off the East Coast, but the NHC discussion now says shear is supposed to increase to 30 kts by that time and would rip Mindy apart. Is that another case of sudden changes in shear forecasts, or did I remember things wrong?
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