ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Nimbus]

No big surprise with this system, right? Just some heavy einds and rains for Northeastern Florida\Southeastern Georgia?

There is the feeder band running back through JAX that may bring some heavy rain for a while.
Center looks like it is staying east of florida for now.

[Jr0d]

Even though the convection is waning near the center, I think it could already be a depression. Im thinking it will eventually turn west.

[jdray]

I'm gonna wishcast some cooling showers from this. Yesterday's high of 97 and low of 80 @ tampa was a tad much.

I'm fully onboard with this wishcast. We've had way too much rain the past month. Just had another 4 inches in 1 hour last night. And now the moisture feeding this thing is sitting on top of us.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1418687226225979392

[NDG]

ASCAT from 20:12 UTC is showing 30knt winds. The models have winds no where near this and the one that does has 50 knot winds tomorrow, which I would consider the model been stupid.


https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ascat/MetopB/WINDS/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds75.png

ASCAT was from 11:35 this morning not this afternoon. Those winds were along the convection and mid level vortex when it was being sheared to the south earlier.
If you are going to say that models are stupid at least know how to read the time stamp on the bottom and not the top of when the ASCAT pass was done.

[toad strangler]

These type of systems regardless of development can be the sneakiest of all versions of tropical weather in the amount of rain they can lay down. Looks like this guy won’t just stall and wreak havoc anywhere but gotta be wary in areas prone to flooding in excessive rains.

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated low pressure area centered about 150 miles east of
Daytona Beach, Florida, continues to produce some showers and
thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since
yesterday, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the low meanders offshore or near the Florida peninsula.
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[jaxfladude]

Slowly ticking up....hope this is an quick and meh system and NOT an omen for real hurricane season....(Elsa better not be a another track preview either)

[AlphaToOmega]

:uarrow:
Slowly ticking up....hope this is an quick and meh system and NOT an omen for real hurricane season....

Wind shear will prevent this from becoming a hurricane. A strong tropical storm is likely, though.

[toad strangler]

The eternal conservative tropical met Andy is

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1418721765337993219

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

I have it moving inland near Cape Canaveral/Kennedy by early Sunday afternoon with pressure maybe 1010mb. Very weak.

[toad strangler]

90L enhanced action inbound to my backyard

[Nimbus]

Upper level low to the southeast of this so it looks like the High will eventually capture it, might drag it southwest across South Florida into the gulf.

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 90L
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 24, 2021:

Location: 29.6°N 78.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1015 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 75 nm

[toad strangler]

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have it moving inland near Cape Canaveral/Kennedy by early Sunday afternoon with pressure maybe 1010mb. Very weak.

If Wxman has this forming, prepare for CAT 5! I personally still think this will not form btw.

[Blown Away]

Quite a lighting show offshore to the NE from Stuart Florida. Definitely some consistent disturbed weather going on.

[toad strangler]

Levi has spoken

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1418752640809201669

[eastcoastFL]